Final Stats

The postponement of the Houston-Sacramento game delayed us by a day, but now we have the final stats for all 14 WNBA teams and can take a look. We start, as usual, with point differential as sorted by Expected Wins.

Team          ExpW    Team          ExpW
------------------    ------------------
San Antonio   21.2    Detroit       21.9
Seattle       19.9    Connecticut   21.9
Los Angeles   19.5    New York      18.2
Minnesota     18.5    Indiana       17.5
Phoenix       17.0    Chicago       15.7
Sacramento    16.1    Washington     9.3
Houston       15.5    Atlanta        5.6

Once upon a time, point differential was a perfect predictor of the WNBA champion. The team with the top differential won the first eight league championships. Since then, the team with the best differential has fallen short three straight years, with the No. 2 team winning the championship. Perhaps the Connecticut Sun knew that and intentionally finished just behind Detroit. The Sun had the best differential and lost in both 2005 and 2006, while the Shock had the best differential last year and lost in the Finals. The difference between Detroit and Connecticut was a single point over the course of the season.

There is less separation for the top teams in the Western Conference. If you take out the Storm's 17-point loss on Sunday, the Storm would cut the gap with San Antonio about in half. The outcome was worth more than a win in terms of the difference between the Storm and the L.A. Sparks. In terms of differential, on paper the matchup between Sacramento and San Antonio is easily the first-round's biggest mismatch.

Alright, to the leaders in Offensive and Defensive Rating on a per-possession basis.

Team          ORating     Team          DRating
---------------------     ---------------------
Phoenix         106.2     San Antonio      93.7
Connecticut     103.0     Los Angeles      93.7
Minnesota       102.9     Indiana          94.5
Detroit         102.6     Seattle          94.7
New York        100.2     Detroit          96.4
San Antonio      99.5     Connecticut      97.9
Seattle          99.2     Sacramento       98.5
AVERAGE          98.9     Chicago          98.8
Chicago          98.1     AVERAGE          98.9
Sacramento       97.6     New York         99.1
Los Angeles      97.2     Houston          99.2
Houston          96.7     Minnesota       101.0
Indiana          95.3     Washington      102.1
Atlanta          93.3     Atlanta         106.4
Washington       91.5     Phoenix         107.0

For much of the season, Indiana was threatening to post one of the best defensive seasons in WNBA history. After a late slide, not only is the Fever's defense not historic, it did not even lead the league. That honor belongs to the Silver Stars, though the top four teams were all very close defensively throughout the season and have clearly separated themselves from the pack. The "defense wins championships" believers can take solace in this: New York was the only below-average defensive team to make the playoffs and Chicago the only above-average team to miss them, and in neither case was much far from average. Meanwhile, a pair of elite offenses (Phoenix and Minnesota) were completely done in by terrible defenses.

Los Angeles, despite the superstars, ended up 10th in the WNBA in offense. I'd have to double-check, but I can't imagine there has ever been a champion who has struggled so much to score.

As far as individuals, a pair of leaderboards featuring Wins Above Replacement Player from my rating system and per-minute PER. Don't forget that Paul Swanson also offers year-end net plus-minus ratings. While Sue Bird saw her net plus-minus take a bit of a hit when the Storm's second unit played well against Atlanta, she still finished as the league's leader.

Player              Tm   WARP
-----------------------------
Candace Parker     LAS   10.7
Diana Taurasi      PHO    9.0
Lisa Leslie        LAS    7.5
Lindsay Whalen     CON    7.1
Jia Perkins        CHI    6.6
Sophia Young       SAS    6.5
Candice Dupree     CHI    6.0
Janel McCarville   NYL    5.9
Becky Hammon       SAS    5.8
Tamika Catchings   IND    5.7

Candace Parker becomes the second rookie to lead the league in WARP, joining Tamika Catchings. More surprising is that Lisa Leslie finished third in the league. There's been no MVP talk for Leslie, and that's understandable given she plays alongside Parker and her plus-minus numbers are not particularly strong. However, the notion that she's lost a step ... maybe a tiny drop-off on offense, but otherwise it's not justified. Leslie would be my Defensive Player of the Year.

Jia Perkins deserves some mention in All-WNBA voting. Under the radar, she really had a terrific, terrific season. The other surprise in the final WARP numbers is that Catchings snuck into the top 10. On a per-minute basis, Catchings was as effective as Diana Taurasi.

Player              Tm    PER
-----------------------------
Diana Taurasi      PHO   29.3
Candace Parker     LAS   27.2
Sancho Lyttle      HOU   27.2
Lauren Jackson     SEA   27.0
Lindsay Whalen     CON   25.2
Janel McCarville   NYL   24.7
Sophia Young       SAS   24.2
Asjha Jones        CON   23.5
Jia Perkins        CHI   23.0
Candice Wiggins    MIN   23.0

The differences in the lists reflect both per-minute versus total value and the differences in the two systems. For example, Sancho Lyttle rates as an elite, elite player either way, but she played so few minutes she was not amongst the league's most valuable. Jackson, naturally, is another player hurt by minutes.

The other differences are more subtle. PER prefers Taurasi's high usage rate; WARP likes Parker's defensive numbers. It's hard to go wrong either way.

The Rest of My MVP Ballot

With the regular season wrapping up this weekend, ballots for WNBA awards are due Monday. There's little time left for the media to determine its MVP picks, while this is your last weekend to vote online at WNBA.com. Storm.wnba.com has already thrown its considerable (but biased) weight behind Storm point guard Sue Bird. But what about the rest of my ballot, at least for online voting purposes?

We start as usual with a look at the numbers. Here's a look at the two stats I lend the most credence: Wins Above Replacement Player by my rating system and Net Plus-Minus rating, as tracked by Paul Swanson of the Lynx. I've included 12 players who feature prominently in the MVP discussion, ranking them in both categories.

Player              Tm   WARP  Rk  Net +/-  Rk
----------------------------------------------
Seimone Augustus   MIN    4.2  20    +18.4   2
Sue Bird           SEA    4.1  21    +20.7   1
Becky Hammon       SAS    6.7   6    + 3.4  49
Asjha Jones        CON    5.4  14    +10.8   7
Lisa Leslie        LAS    7.2   4    + 4.6  39
Janel McCarville   NYL    5.9   8    + 8.9  15

Player              Tm   WARP  Rk  Net +/-  Rk
----------------------------------------------
Deanna Nolan       DET    4.8  16    + 7.9  20
Candace Parker     LAS   10.2   1    + 9.9   9
Diana Taurasi      PHO    9.0   2    + 8.5  19
Tina Thompson      HOU    2.1  40    - 4.1  88
Lindsay Whalen     CON    7.3   3    + 2.4  55
Sophia Young       SAS    6.9   5    +14.5   3

So, without further ado, my non-Bird picks:

4. Lindsay Whalen, Connecticut
When voting started, Whalen was at the top of my ballot on the strength of her excellent numbers and the Sun's play. However, I've since been persuaded to push her down the ballot because of her relatively poor net plus-minus. That's backed up by how well the Sun has played without Whalen when she's missed time with a sprained ankle over the last couple of weeks. She's an incredible player, but might not be indispensable to her team like, say, the Storm's point guard.

3. Diana Taurasi, Phoenix
One of the sports notions that irks me is this hard-and-fast "playoffs or bust" mentality when it comes to MVP. Is team success an important consideration in MVP voting? Absolutely. However, making the playoffs is an imperfect measure of a team's performance at best. In the Eastern Conference, the Mercury would still be alive for the playoffs. Additionally, Phoenix has a better point differential than the playoff-bound Monarchs. Taurasi's individual numbers are undeniable and she's been as good as anyone in the league in August in making a late postseason push. Still, the combination of numbers and team isn't quite MVP-worthy.

2. Candace Parker, Los Angeles
It's easy to make the argument for Parker to top this list. My numbers rate her as far and away the most valuable player in the league. The prospect of a rookie winning doesn't bother me at all. What does work against Parker is the fact that while her net plus-minus is great, it's not as otherworldy as her individual stats. The notable discrepancy is on defense. The WARP system rates Parker as one of the top five defenders in the league, but the Sparks defend better when she is on the bench. I think her gaudy steal and block numbers may slightly overstate Parker's defensive prowess at this point.

1. Sophia Young, San Antonio
There are plenty of voters who will likely pick Young's teammate Becky Hammon as their MVP, but the numbers strongly suggest that it is Young, not Hammon, who has been most valuable to the Silver Stars this season. Young's net plus-minus is third in the league, and when you consider the quality of her team (net plus-minus is designed so that each team averages exactly 0), she and Bird stand alone when it comes to bottom-line impact on their team's success and failure. Young's offensive game has blossomed, allowing her to run even with Hammon as San Antonio's leading scorer. The breadth of her game is what makes Young so valuable, however, as she rebounds, defends multiple positions and handles the ball with few turnovers.

Stats Entering Final Week

Team stats only today. We'll look at the MVP race tomorrow when I have a chance to update my WARP spreadsheet. We start, as usual, with point differential. Here are the standings using expected full-season wins based on differential.

Team          ExpW    Team          ExpW
------------------    ------------------
San Antonio   21.0    Connecticut   22.6
Seattle       20.1    Detroit       21.5
Los Angeles   19.4    New York      18.9
Minnesota     17.7    Indiana       16.7
Phoenix       17.6    Chicago       15.3
Sacramento    16.6    Washington    10.7
Houston       14.7    Atlanta        4.5

While the West is no longer so tightly bunched in the actual standings, just 4.4 Expected Wins separate sixth-place Sacramento from first-place San Antonio. Minnesota's differential took a major hit in three losses, while Phoenix climbed to nearly catch the Lynx.

In the East, no surprises. Things are what they are at this point.

Alright, to the leaders in Offensive and Defensive Rating on a per-possession basis.

Team          ORating     Team          DRating
---------------------     ---------------------
Phoenix         106.8     San Antonio      93.8
Connecticut     103.1     Indiana          92.6
Detroit         103.1     Los Angeles      94.7
Minnesota       102.4     Seattle          94.6
New York        101.1     Detroit          97.1
Seattle         100.2     Connecticut      97.4
AVERAGE          98.7     Sacramento       97.9
San Antonio      98.5     AVERAGE          98.7
Chicago          97.7     New York         99.0
Los Angeles      97.6     Chicago          99.0
Sacramento       97.3     Houston          99.2
Houston          95.4     Washington      100.6
Indiana          93.6     Minnesota       101.4
Atlanta          92.4     Phoenix         106.8
Washington       91.7     Atlanta         106.8

The common denominator amongst teams moving up in the standings has been strong defense of late, while the teams like Houston and Minnesota that have faded have seen their defensive numbers slip as well. Phoenix actually belongs in the latter group, having gotten out of the cellar defensively for the first time in several weeks. Q took a look at the Mercury's improved D last week.

Detroit has suddenly emerged as the most balanced contender and the only team in the league in the top five in both offense and defense. The Storm, sixth in offense, is just outside that group, as is Connecticut, sixth in defense.

Post-Olympic Break Stats Highlighting MVP Candidates

We're back from the Olympic Break and most teams have no more than six games left in the regular season. Yet the numbers still continue to fluctuate, especially with teams affected by injuries, deals and more. Let's take a look.

How do things stand in terms of point differential? Here are the standings using expected full-season wins based on differential.

Team          ExpW    Team          ExpW
------------------    ------------------
San Antonio   20.1    Connecticut   23.2
Seattle       19.9    Detroit       20.4
Minnesota     19.7    New York      18.2
Los Angeles   18.7    Indiana       17.2
Sacramento    16.7    Chicago       16.0
Houston       16.3    Washington    11.2
Phoenix       15.9    Atlanta        4.6

The Lynx improved their differential in their first game back from the break. If they maintained it and missed the playoffs, only the 2003 Storm and 1998 New York Liberty would have better differentials amongst lottery-bound team. By the way, Phoenix's record overstates how much the Mercury has struggled this year.

In the East, Chicago is creeping up on Indiana for the last playoff spot. Surprisingly, the Sky's differential has yet to improve much since the break; it was already much better than Chicago's record.

Alright, to the leaders in Offensive and Defensive Rating on a per-possession basis.

Team          ORating     Team          DRating
---------------------     ---------------------
Phoenix         106.2     Indiana          92.6
Minnesota       103.7     San Antonio      93.8
Connecticut     103.4     Seattle          94.6
Detroit         102.0     Los Angeles      94.7
New York        100.3     Connecticut      96.8
Seattle          99.3     Houston          97.5
AVERAGE          98.5     Detroit          97.7
Chicago          98.1     Sacramento       98.0
San Antonio      98.1     AVERAGE          98.5
Sacramento       97.5     Chicago          98.7
Los Angeles      97.5     New York         98.9
Houston          95.3     Washington       99.9
Indiana          93.1     Minnesota       100.0
Atlanta          92.5     Atlanta         106.8
Washington       91.7     Phoenix         108.0

Not a lot of major movement. On the strength of Saturday's defensive slugfest in Los Angeles, the Silver Stars moved up into second place in the league in Defensive Rating ahead of the Storm. Chicago's post-break improvement has come on the defensive end thanks to Sylvia Fowles' shot-blocking presence in the paint.

With MVP voting underway at WNBA.com, I'm going to focus on the numbers in the MVP race the rest of the season. Here's a look at the two stats I lend the most credence: Wins Above Replacement Player by my rating system and Net Plus-Minus rating, as tracked by Paul Swanson of the Lynx. I've included the top 10 by WARP as well as a few other players that deserve to be part of the discussion in no small part because of their excellent net plus-minus ratings. Their WARP rank is in parentheses.

Player              Tm   WARP  Net +/-  Rk
------------------------------------------
Candace Parker     LAS    8.2   +12.6    5
Diana Taurasi      PHO    7.3   + 8.8   18
Lindsay Whalen     CON    7.0   + 0.4   65
Lisa Leslie        LAS    6.5   + 4.2   44
Sophia Young       SAS    6.3   +15.8    2
Lauren Jackson     SEA    5.6   +12.8    4
Candice Dupree     CHI    5.5   + 8.3   20
Jia Perkins        CHI    5.4   +10.0   12
Becky Hammon       SAS    5.4   + 3.6   48
Candice Wiggins    MIN    5.1   + 9.1   17

Player              Tm   WARP  Net +/-  Rk
------------------------------------------
Asjha Jones (11)   CON    4.9   +10.2   11
S. Augustus (16)   MIN    4.1   +15.5    3
Sue Bird (22)      SEA    3.4   +20.3    1

Some thoughts:

We'll see how much the silly notion that a rookie shouldn't win hurts Candace Parker, but statistically there's no argument against her candidacy.

Lindsay Whalen is an interesting case. Her individual numbers are terrific, and I've been her biggest supporter. However, the Sun has played nearly as well without Whalen as with her, as evidenced by yesterday's win over the Storm. Asjha Jones has been Connecticut's most important player from this perspective, and stepped up yesterday. I'm not sure I'm ready to put Jones on my ballot, but I've dropped Whalen.

The other player who suffers by contrast to her teammate in this analysis is Becky Hammon. It's hard to justify that Hammon has been more valuable to the Silver Stars than Sophia Young this season.

Don't write off Jia Perkins, who comes out very well by both measures. If the Sky makes the playoffs, I could see a fifth-place vote for her.

Sue Bird's individual stats still aren't terrific, but net plus-minus reveals how valuable she has been to the Storm. Lauren Jackson's net plus-minus was actually better when she first left the team, but the Storm's play without her has lowered this number.

Olympic Stats/Semifinals Preview

Looking ahead to tomorrow's semifinals, here's a look at updated Olympic team stats.

Team             Gr    Diff   ORating Rank   DRating Rank    Pace

United States     B    58.7    133.8    1      76.6    1     73.6
Australia         A    31.7    115.4    2      84.1    2     72.5
China             B     6.3    101.1    4      94.1    5     72.0
Russia            A     6.0    102.6    3      94.4    6     69.5
Spain             B     3.2     96.7    5      92.8    4     73.0
Belarus           A    -5.2     87.2   10      92.4    3     73.8
Czech Republic    B    -9.8     89.5    9      99.5    8     72.9
South Korea       A   -18.3     90.9    8     107.4    9     70.0

Here are the Four Factors numbers on offense and defense for all teams.

Team             Gr    eFG%    OR%   FTM/FGA   TO%

Australia         A   0.474   0.425   0.250   0.139
Belarus           A   0.413   0.339   0.174   0.225
China             B   0.465   0.274   0.239   0.164
Czech Republic    B   0.431   0.303   0.221   0.222
Russia            A   0.486   0.372   0.244   0.211
South Korea       A   0.458   0.170   0.139   0.172
Spain             B   0.485   0.300   0.220   0.219
United States     B   0.607   0.423   0.167   0.127

Team             Gr    eFG%    DR%   FTM/FGA   TO%

Australia         A   0.406   0.768   0.196   0.203
Belarus           A   0.434   0.738   0.225   0.184
China             B   0.429   0.651   0.134   0.174
Czech Republic    B   0.464   0.653   0.242   0.200
Russia            A   0.438   0.732   0.194   0.169
South Korea       A   0.525   0.561   0.242   0.233
Spain             B   0.466   0.650   0.220   0.238
United States     B   0.403   0.744   0.172   0.254

I've also used the Log5 method to predict each team's chances of advancing and finishing in each position.

Team             Final   Gold  Silver  Bronze    4th

United States     99.6   94.0    5.6     0.4     0.0
Australia         94.4    5.9   88.5     5.3     0.3
China              5.6    0.0    5.6    47.8    46.5
Russia             0.4    0.0    0.3    46.5    53.1

The USA remains a heavy favorite, to understate the issue. By these numbers, there's little drama in the semifinals. Subjectively, that's not the case. Let's look at the two matchups.

USA vs. Russia
History is clear: Russia saves its best efforts for matchups against the U.S. Russia has always been unpredictable, but this year that's even more true because of what appear to be legitimate chemistry issues only exacerbated by the addition of Becky Hammon. As I've noted before, however, Russia played much worse in the group round and in the quarterfinals in Brazil, and it did not matter in the semifinals.

From a statistical perspective, Russia's size shows up on the glass, where Australia, the U.S. and Russia (in that order) are the three dominant teams. The USA has rebounded well against smaller teams, but sometimes allows offensive boards to bigger squads like Russia. If Russia wins, presumably 6-8 center Maria Stepanova will have a big game.

A key matchup will pit Hammon against Sue Bird at the point. Hammon has the ability to exploit the USA defense by getting to the basket. Nuria Martinez showed this vulnerability to dribble penetration in keeping Spain in the game for a half. However, the strength of the U.S. defense has been forcing turnovers, and Hammon has committed nearly four a game in these Olympics. (Her assist-to-turnover ratio is 5-to-23; ouch!) If the USA can turn Hammon over, it figures to frustrate both her and her Russian teammates while also offering transition buckets.

Lastly, watch the first quarter closely. In Brazil, Russia jumped out early thanks to hot shooting and the U.S. fell too far behind to catch up. While the last two games (blowing a big halftime lead against Australia, coming back against Spain) have bucked the trend, Russia generally plays much better from ahead. Team chemistry could be a major issue if the USA gets off to a quick start. If Russia is close after one quarter and especially at the half, the U.S. will likely be unable to pull away as it has against lesser competition thus far in the Olympics.

Australia vs. China
This game took on more drama when Penny Taylor sprained her right ankle during Tuesday's quarterfinal win over the Czech Republic. Though Taylor has not had a big Olympics, she's a key threat for the Opals, especially with Lauren Jackson playing at less than 100 percent. The Aussies hope to have Taylor for this game, but it's more likely she will return on Saturday.

The Australian offense has yet to really click for an entire game in Beijing. Taylor's absence would only exacerbate the issue. Belinda Snell will be critical with or without Taylor, but if Taylor is out and the Chinese defense is focused on Jackson (as it figures to be either way), Snell becomes the team's best offensive option. Suzy Batkovic and Laura Summerton also need to offer the Opals scoring down low against a Chinese frontline that is not great defensively.

The offensive glass figures to be a major, major weapon for the Aussies. China is allowing opponents to grab 35.0 percent of their own misses, while the Opals have an Olympics-best 42.5 percent offensive rebounding rate. Add it up and it's entirely possible that missed shots will be a 50-50 proposition for Australia, extending posessions and offering easy looks in the paint.

If China is to win, the Aussies will have to have a very poor shooting night, maybe get into some foul trouble up front and China will have to be hitting, its posts from midrange and perimeter players from long distance. China has the home-court advantage, and if that translates into the refereeing, that could help with getting Australia in foul trouble and keeping China out of it as well as keeping the Aussies off the line, where they like to live. The X-factor is that Tom Maher knows the Opals' core players very well, information that could serve China well. It would still be a massive upset if Australia loses, but don't rule it out.

Olympics Stats Through Group Play

As we head to the quarterfinals (mere hours away), let's take a last look at the numbers from group play.

Team            Gr    Diff   ORating Rank   DRating Rank    Pace

United States     B    58.2    132.3    1      75.1    1     73.9
Australia         A    28.9    115.8    2      88.5    3     72.6
Spain             B     8.9     96.8    5      87.0    2     74.1
China             B     3.3     98.9    3      95.1    6     72.6
Russia            A     1.7     98.2    4      94.0    5     69.9
Belarus           A    -2.1     86.9   11      88.7    4     74.7
Czech Republic    B    -2.7     95.0    6      96.9    7     73.2
Brazil            A    -4.8     92.4    8      98.7    8     70.6
South Korea       A    -9.5     92.2    9     100.5    9     69.5
Latvia            A   -15.0     94.4    7     110.1   11     70.5
New Zealand       B   -28.0     87.0   10     114.9   12     73.6
Mali              B   -39.2     67.5   12     108.0   10     75.0

The USA's amazing differential really never came down over the course of group play. It's interesting to note that while the U.S. was dominant on defense, its offense was much further ahead of the pack. The Opals and the Americans were the only two teams to average a point per possessions, and the USA blew by that mark with ease. Australia's offense continues to lag compared to 2004 and 2006, but the Aussies have defended well. Look out for Spain as a darkhorse.

Here are the Four Factors numbers on offense and defense for all teams.

Team             Gr    eFG%    OR%   FTM/FGA   TO%

Australia         A   0.484   0.417   0.246   0.141
Belarus           A   0.400   0.315   0.197   0.210
Brazil            A   0.441   0.277   0.203   0.194
China             B   0.453   0.293   0.220   0.167
Czech Republic    B   0.463   0.319   0.235   0.224
Latvia            A   0.474   0.284   0.225   0.221
Mali              B   0.344   0.347   0.203   0.290
New Zealand       B   0.414   0.299   0.224   0.222
Russia            A   0.470   0.364   0.249   0.222
South Korea       A   0.462   0.169   0.151   0.172
Spain             B   0.488   0.308   0.209   0.223
United States     B   0.610   0.406   0.163   0.135

Note that Spain has shot the ball better than anyone else besides the U.S.

Team             Gr    eFG%    DR%   FTM/FGA   TO%

Australia        A       0.433   0.771   0.205   0.200
Belarus          A       0.417   0.722   0.203   0.190
Brazil           A       0.447   0.690   0.213   0.174
China            B       0.420   0.673   0.149   0.149
Czech Republic   B       0.473   0.682   0.236   0.215
Latvia           A       0.495   0.641   0.219   0.165
Mali             B       0.503   0.660   0.176   0.169
New Zealand      B       0.564   0.627   0.288   0.209
Russia           A       0.434   0.730   0.179   0.163
South Korea      A       0.507   0.575   0.258   0.265
Spain            B       0.447   0.661   0.220   0.254
United States    B       0.395   0.727   0.192   0.270

Australia crushed Russia on the offensive glass and dropped Russia way back to the pack in terms of defensive rebounding, just ahead of the USA.

Let's close out by using the Log5 method to predict each team's chances of advancing and winning it all.

Team             Semi   Final   Champ

United States    99.9    99.5    95.9
Australia        96.9    92.0     4.0
China            65.6     5.2     0.0
Belarus          34.4     1.6     0.0
Czech Republic    3.1     1.2     0.0
Spain            70.5     0.4     0.0
Russia           29.5     0.1     0.0
South Korea       0.1     0.0     0.0

So, as you can see, the USA is something of a favorite. Now, two things throw off these numbers. They're based on each team's Pythagorean winning percentage (based on points scored and allowed) and the U.S. has been so, so dominant as to show up as virtually unbeatable. Subjectively, while the U.S. women are good, they aren't that good. Second, if Russia really has been playing possum, the numbers cannot pick up on that, giving Spain an edge that again doesn't match our subjective assessment.

What I do agree with is showing China as a favorite over Belarus to advance to the semis. The numbers do also show, even if it's exaggerated, how much Spain was hurt by finishing third to China in Group B. The Spanish would have a reasonable 10.2 percent chance of reaching the final had they finished second; as it is, it will be extremely difficult to get past both Russia and the U.S.

Olympic Numbers Through Four Games

Back with another check of the numbers. First, a note on what to look for tonight/tomorrow as group play wraps up. Obviously, first place in Group A is on the line when Australia faces Russia at 8:15 p.m. Pacific. I'll be watching on NBC's webcast. I half suspect Russia won't bring its A game, not caring about group positioning and preferring to play the U.S. in the semifinals anyway.

South Korea and Latvia follow them with a spot in the medal rounds on the line. Belarus has beaten both teams and will finish third in Group A even with a loss to Brazil.

In Group B, the four teams are set, but after the U.S. the order is a mess. If China beats the Czech Republic, the host country finishes second with Spain third and the Czech Republic fourth barring a wildly improbable Mali upset over Spain.

If the Czech Republic wins that game, again assuming Spain takes care of business, we have a three-way tie that can't be resolved via head-to-head results. As best I can tell, that would be determined by point average (a misleading term which really would better be called "point ratio") from head-to-head games.

Spain is in good shape, having beaten the Czech Republic by 19 points. Their point average is 1.131. To reach that, the Czechs would have to win by about double, or 38 points(bad math) about 34 points. To finish ahead of China, the Czech Republic would have to win by about 11 points or more.

Again, this is huge because the second-place team in Group B gets Belarus and a relatively clear path to the semifinals, while the third-place team has to face the loser of Australia-Russia and fourth place will play the winner of that game.

Anyways, here are the numbers.

Team            Gr    Diff   ORating Rank   DRating Rank    Pace
United States     B    59.9    131.3    1      72.8    1     74.7
Australia         A    28.9    117.9    2      90.2    3     73.6
Russia            A     9.3    102.3    3      90.8    4     70.2
Belarus           A     2.3     90.4    9      87.8    2     75.1
Czech Republic    B     2.0     96.1    4      93.5    5     73.8
Spain             B     0.3     96.0    5      95.2    6     72.6
China             B    -1.4     96.0    5      96.2    7     73.1
Brazil            A   -11.4     92.3    7     105.3    9     69.9
South Korea       A   -13.1     87.8   10      99.6    8     70.7
Latvia            A   -17.0     92.2    8     109.6   10     72.0
New Zealand       B   -22.5     87.5   11     109.8   11     74.4
Mali              B   -39.1     70.2   12     110.3   12     73.6

The USA's numbers remain impeccable, though I think Spain's first-half challenge showed where the team could have some difficulty. When Sue Bird had a tough time with Nuria Martinez's quickness, the U.S. struggled to fill in for her. Kara Lawson was too prone to turnovers, while Cappie Pondexter isn't a true point guard. Having either another true point like Lindsay Whalen or a complementary player like Loree Moore available would have given Anne Donovan more options.

Offensive Four Factors:

Team             Gr    eFG%    OR%   FTM/FGA   TO%
Australia         A   0.509   0.401   0.242   0.143
Belarus           A   0.419   0.307   0.238   0.218
Brazil            A   0.447   0.288   0.209   0.208
China             B   0.437   0.318   0.195   0.173
Czech Republic    B   0.491   0.307   0.232   0.241
Latvia            A   0.482   0.227   0.223   0.227
Mali              B   0.348   0.367   0.203   0.278
New Zealand       B   0.398   0.317   0.249   0.213
Russia            A   0.500   0.398   0.246   0.231
South Korea       A   0.442   0.157   0.141   0.171
Spain             B   0.485   0.295   0.223   0.225
United States     B   0.606   0.423   0.164   0.138

Australia has not shot the ball particularly well, but the Opals' offense is still second only to the U.S. because the Aussies are doing everything else well on offense.

And defense:

Team               eFG%    DR%   FTM/FGA   TO%
Australia         0.452   0.776   0.191   0.204
Belarus           0.417   0.712   0.209   0.203
Brazil            0.480   0.701   0.259   0.173
China             0.433   0.680   0.126   0.147
Czech Republic    0.461   0.651   0.213   0.231
Latvia            0.483   0.616   0.223   0.162
Mali              0.504   0.662   0.180   0.157
New Zealand       0.545   0.617   0.325   0.230
Russia            0.447   0.794   0.154   0.171
South Korea       0.525   0.595   0.266   0.281
Spain             0.475   0.641   0.225   0.232
United States     0.372   0.714   0.212   0.272

Yeah, I'd say the U.S. commitment to defense has paid off so far.

Olympics Team Stats

With the first three games of group play in the book, I've got my spreadsheet updated to take a look at advanced possession-based stats for all 12 Olympic teams. They're sorted below by differential per 100 possessions.

Team            Gr    Diff   ORating Rank   DRating Rank    Pace

United States     B    62.2    133.4    1      70.9    1     75.6
Australia         A    27.9    113.0    2      86.3    3     74.2
Spain             B    17.9    101.5    3      85.0    2     72.7
Russia            A     7.5    100.5    4      90.2    4     70.7
Belarus           A    -1.3     91.0    8      92.7    5     76.0
Brazil            A   -10.4     92.2    7     104.6    9     70.3
China             B   -11.2     95.2    5     104.7   11     74.2
Czech Republic    B   -11.2     86.4   11      97.8    6     74.4
Latvia            A   -12.0     88.9   10     101.7    7     72.1
South Korea       A   -12.8     93.0    6     103.2    8     70.3
New Zealand       B   -16.0     89.7    9     104.6    9     75.1
Mali              B   -41.8     70.7   12     114.0   12     74.9

The U.S. ... wow. Just wow. I'm not sure I've ever seen a number that big in any context. Spain figures to present a greater challenge on Friday, but my expectation was that China was the second-best team in Group B - and China will finish second with a win over the Czech Republic - and the USA ran the Chinese out of the building on Monday. So ... yeah.

The Opals are about where you'd expect on defense. They haven't scored as efficiently as is typical, largely because Lauren Jackson and Penny Taylor haven't lived up to their own lofty standards. I don't think that's much of a concern.

Since losing to China, Spain has played very well. The Spanish women will see their rating go way down after playing the USA tomorrow, however. It's possible that if the U.S. wins in a rout we could have only three teams with positive differentials.

A couple of decent teams - Brazil likely to be one of them - will be left home from Group A, which is much more balanced than the stratified Group B.

Here are the Four Factors numbers on offense and defense for all teams.

                            OFFENSE                           DEFENSE
Team             Gr    eFG%    OR%   FTM/FGA   TO%       eFG%    DR%   FTM/FGA   TO%

Australia         A   0.516   0.361   0.293   0.173     0.411   0.752   0.172   0.184
Belarus           A   0.399   0.287   0.227   0.177     0.442   0.683   0.233   0.207
Brazil            A   0.443   0.330   0.228   0.220     0.473   0.743   0.295   0.165
China             B   0.434   0.327   0.237   0.187     0.471   0.713   0.122   0.119
Czech Republic    B   0.449   0.291   0.185   0.249     0.481   0.651   0.230   0.219
Latvia            A   0.446   0.257   0.211   0.213     0.478   0.667   0.268   0.201
Mali              B   0.365   0.351   0.228   0.295     0.525   0.645   0.214   0.166
New Zealand       B   0.396   0.306   0.277   0.195     0.520   0.613   0.307   0.235
Russia            A   0.500   0.389   0.280   0.244     0.444   0.780   0.156   0.172
South Korea       A   0.476   0.136   0.141   0.166     0.532   0.596   0.260   0.258
Spain             B   0.514   0.294   0.204   0.212     0.419   0.700   0.263   0.244
United States     B   0.606   0.378   0.174   0.117     0.368   0.718   0.190   0.275

Q noted that the U.S. women struggled on the glass in the big win over Mali, but over the course of the tournament it has not been a big problem. Russia's giant frontline will test the USA on the glass. Remarkably, Russia and the Czech Republic, two good, veteran teams, have turned the ball over more frequently than anyone besides lowly Mali.

Trade Analysis: Taj for Tasha

Never content to cede the spotlight, even to the Olympics, "Trader Bill" Laimbeer pulled off another big deal Tuesday, sending rookie center Tasha Humphrey, wing Shay Murphy and a 2009 second-round pick to the Washington Mystics for veteran center Taj McWilliams-Franklin. The deal is obviously a response to the loss of All-Star post Cheryl Ford for the remainder of the season to a torn ACL as the Shock looks to retain its position as the favorites in the Eastern Conference.

Does it accomplish that? Let's take a look at the numbers. We'll run through three scenarios: The Shock with a healthy Ford, with Humphrey and now with McWilliams-Franklin. For the most part, we can safely leave Murphy aside, since she had just played 122 minutes since joining Detroit in a deal earlier in the season.

Together, Ford and Humphrey had averaged an even 40 minutes per game for the Shock this season, so let's consider them as playing one position even though they often played together and Ford was considered the power forward and Humphrey the center, with Kara Braxton and Olayinka Sanni also sharing time in the middle.

Let's quickly look at the players as rated by my rating system, which estimates the Offensive Rating, the Defensive Rating and a winning percentage for an imaginary team made up of four average players and the player in question. Lastly, WARP estimates the wins the player has contributed as compared to a replacement-level player in their minutes.

Player       Win%   ORtg   DRtg   WARP
--------------------------------------
Ford         .606   96.7   93.8    3.1
Humphrey     .624   99.4   95.9    1.6
McWilliams   .581   94.9   92.7    3.6

Both Ford and McWilliams-Franklin have played liked All-Stars this season. Humphrey has actually been somewhat more effective on a per-minute basis, but has not been nearly as valuable because of her limited minutes. I'm not sure about the assertion that McWilliams-Franklin has been the better defender and Ford the better offensive player, but it's no surprise that the undersized Humphrey comes out as a great offensive player who is something of a liability at the defensive end.

If we project out Ford's and Humphrey's minutes per game over a full 34-game season, Ford would be worth 5.1 WARP and Humphrey 2.9 for a total of 8.0 wins above replacement. Obviously, that's excellent for one position. Unfortunately, that option was no longer available after Ford's injury.

In theory, Detroit could have bumped Humphrey's minutes way up, but for a variety of reasons - including foul trouble; Humphrey has averaged 7.9 fouls per 40 minutes - that was unlikely to happen. We got a look at this lineup, more or less, in Detroit's loss to San Antonio before the Olympic break. Humphrey played 11 minutes after picking up four early fouls, with newly-signed Kelly Schumacher playing 18. Let's assume Humphrey would have played about 20 minutes per game, with Braxton (who has rated right around average) adding five more and Schumacher (a replacement-level contributor last year in Phoenix) picking up the rest.

Under that scenario, Humphrey would be worth 4.2 WARP over a season, Braxton an extra 0.5 and Suchmacher at replacement level for a total of 4.7 WARP. That's a fairly significant drop off from the Ford-Humphrey duo, though you didn't need stats to tell you that.

Our last scenario is now reality. McWilliams-Franklin has been averaging 33.2 minutes per game in Washington. Let's conservatively project that drops to 30 a night in Ddetroit, with Braxton again picking up five minutes a game and Schumacher the other five. There, McWilliams-Franklin would be worth 5.0 wins above replacement and the group 5.5 WARP.

Even though McWilliams-Franklin is an able replacement for Ford, giving up Humphrey means the Shock is still not as strong as before Ford's injury. The short-term gain from this deal also might be less than conventional wisdom would have it, though this analysis was more conservative in projecting McWilliams-Franklin's minutes than Ford's. It's also difficult to quantify the value of McWilliams-Franklin's veteran presence in the postseason.

With Connecticut close in the East, every bit of improvement will help Detroit in its quest for a third straight WNBA Finals appearance and a third championship. However, the Shock may regret letting go of the promising Humphrey. That's why this is a great trade for Washington, which contines to stockpile young talent by dealing veteran players for younger ones. In Humphrey, Alana Beard, Monique Currie and Crystal Langhorne, the Mystics have four building blocks in place. Only one thing is missing, and that's a point guard. If Washington can address that this off-season, preferably in the draft but potentially in free agency, the Mystics will be back in the playoff picture as quickly as next season.

There's reason to be careful in evaluating Humphrey, who has yet to play big minutes regularly in the WNBA and dropped to the 11th pick and Detroit in the April WNBA Draft. Still, when the Mystics acquired McWilliams-Franklin at the start of training camp for DeLisha Milton-Jones, I suggested Washington would have preferred to get a younger player. In Humphrey, the Mystics have gotten a talented one indeed.

Pre-Olympic Break Stats (including TO Rate)

After a wild week, the WNBA now heads into the Olympic break, giving us a month to think about how things are going to shake out down the stretch. The Eastern Conference has tightened up at the top, with a half-game separating Connecticut, Detroit and New York and the Shock without Cheryl Ford for the rest of the season. There's a little separation after San Antonio and the Storm in the West, but Houston, Los Angeles, Minnesota and Sacramento all have either 12 or 13 losses fighting for two playoff spots.

How do things stand in terms of point differential? Here are the standings using expected full-season wins based on differential.

Team          ExpW    Team          ExpW
------------------    ------------------
San Antonio   19.6    Connecticut   21.5
Seattle       19.5    Detroit       20.1
Minnesota     19.2    New York      19.3
Los Angeles   18.0    Indiana       17.6
Houston       17.6    Chicago       15.2
Phoenix       16.8    Washington    11.6
Sacramento    16.7    Atlanta        5.3

The Minnesota Lynx continue to be the anomaly by differential. Their differential is virtually the same as the Storm's and San Antonio's, yet the Lynx are on the outside of the playoffs looking in. Sacramento's seven-game winning streak did surprisingly little for the team's differential, which remains worst in the West.

Connecticut looks strong in the East, though the Sun's differential got an artificial boost with a 26-point win over Los Angeles on Thursday with Lisa Leslie, DeLisha Milton-Jones and Candace Parker all suspended. Something tells me that game goes a little differently with them active, though I still would have made the Sun the favorites. New York still lags a bit in terms of differential.

Alright, to the leaders in Offensive and Defensive Rating on a per-possession basis.

Team          ORating     Team          DRating
---------------------     ---------------------
Phoenix         107.4     Indiana          91.7
Minnesota       103.3     Seattle          94.7
Connecticut     101.9     San Antonio      95.1
Detroit         101.9     Los Angeles      95.7
New York        100.9     Connecticut      97.6
Seattle          99.4     Detroit          97.7
AVERAGE          98.7     Houston          97.8
San Antonio      98.6     New York         98.4
Chicago          98.3     Sacramento       98.4
Sacramento       97.9     AVERAGE          98.7
Los Angeles      97.8     Washington       99.0
Houston          96.6     Chicago          99.6
Atlanta          92.8     Minnesota       100.3
Indiana          92.7     Atlanta         106.1
Washington       91.5     Phoenix         108.1

For the most part, things have settled in here. A couple of notable changes: Sacramento has surged up the defensive rankings during the winning streak, while the Lynx have slipped down ahead of just Atlanta and Phoenix.

To the individual stats. Here are the leaders by Player Efficiency Rating, minimum 250 minutes.

Player              Tm   PER
----------------------------
Diana Taurasi      PHO  28.4
Sancho Lyttle      HOU  27.2
Lauren Jackson     SEA  27.1
Lindsay Whalen     CON  27.0
Candace Parker     LAS  25.7
Sophia Young       SAS  25.2
Candice Wiggins    MIN  24.6
Janel McCarville   NYL  24.5
Cappie Pondexter   PHO  23.3
Candice Dupree     CHI  23.2

Not much movement at this point of the season. Lyttle topped out at 23 minutes last week, and she needs more time on the court.

We continue our look at a miscellaneous statistic each week. This week we'll highlight turnover percentage, which is pretty simply the percentage of a player or team's possessions that end in a turnover. I calculate this as TO/(FGA + (.44*FTA) + TO). Others will subtract offensive rebounds from the denominator, but I like the idea of a team's possessions being divided into those that end in shots from the field, trips to the free-throw line and turnovers and having those three add up to 100 percent.

Here's a look at how teams rate this season in terms of lowest turnover percentage (left) and highest opponent turnover percentage (right).

Team             TO%     Team             TO%
--------------------     --------------------
Phoenix         14.5     Sacramento      20.1
Minnesota       15.0     Indiana         19.6
Detroit         15.4     New York        19.3
Connecticut     16.0     Washington      18.9
Seattle         16.9     Detroit         18.9
Chicago         17.5     Minnesota       18.3
New York        18.0     Houston         18.3
Sacramento      18.4     San Antonio     17.4
San Antonio     18.7     Seattle         17.2
Atlanta         18.9     Atlanta         16.9
Houston         19.1     Chicago         16.5
Los Angeles     19.2     Connecticut     16.0
Indiana         19.5     Los Angeles     15.8
Washington      21.0     Phoenix         15.2

Everyone thinks high-paced games mean lots of sloppy play and turnovers, but really that's not the case for teams that shoot it before they have a chance to commit a turnover. San Antonio coughs it up more often than you would like for a contending team. In general, teams that really struggle with turnovers have issues at point guard.

For the most part, you have two different types of defenses - those that sit back and defend the shot and those that aggressively play for turnovers. The Storm, San Antonio and L.A. generally fit into the former group, while Sacramento and New York rely on turnovers. It's possible to be successful either way. Of course, the strongest defenses combine both, and Indiana is the best example of that this season.

How about at the individual level. Here are the players that turn it over least often.

Player              Tm   TO%
----------------------------
Kelly Mazzante     PHO   7.5
Seimone Augustus   MIN   8.5
Raff. Masciadri    LAS   8.9
Cheryl Ford        DET   8.9
Katie Gearlds      SEA   9.4
Alison Bales       ATL   9.5
Lauren Jackson     SEA   9.6
Jia Perkins        CHI   9.7
Sophia Young       SAS  10.2
Diana Taurasi      PHO  10.3

Again, Mazzante, Masciadri and Gearlds are examples of the "shoot it before you turn it over" philosophy. Many of the league's top players are very surehanded given how much offense they're creating. The outliers on this list are Ford and Bales.

Which players are most prone to turnovers?

Player              Tm   TO%
----------------------------
Nancy Lieberman    DET  66.7
Kasha Terry        ATL  31.7
Shannon Bobbitt    LAS  31.5
Loree Moore        NYL  31.0
Brooke Wyckoff     CHI  30.6
Kristin Haynie     ATL  30.1
A'Quon. Franklin   SAC  28.1
Ruth Riley         SAS  27.7
Kerri Gardin       CON  27.5
Erica White        HOU  26.9
Noelle Quinn       MIN  26.8

OK, Nancy Lieberman's 11 minutes don't really qualify her. Here you see a lot of point guards, which is not surprising. One adjustment many people make is to include assists with possessions used to account for the extra ballhandling done by point guards. I'm not a huge fan of doing so, but this explains wh it makes sense. That being said, I'm surprised how often Moore has turned it over. Her turnover rate was 23.9 percent a year ago, which is much more reasonable for a point guard.

We'll wrap things up by looking at the Storm's turnover rates.

Player              Tm   TO%
----------------------------
Katie Gearlds      SEA   9.4
Lauren Jackson     SEA   9.6
Sheryl Swoopes     SEA  11.8
Swin Cash          SEA  15.2
Sue Bird           SEA  17.2
Shyra Ely          SEA  20.0
Tanisha Wright     SEA  21.3
Yolanda Griffith   SEA  21.4
Camille Little     SEA  22.0
Ashley Robinson    SEA  30.4

Aside from Robinson, who rarely handles the ball on offense, the Storm doesn't have anyone who has regular problems with turnovers. Little is another type of player hurt by this analysis - she can't get any credit for setting screens, but can pick up offensive fouls that go in the books as turnovers.

A big part of Wright's improvement this season has been slashing her turnover rate from 27.9 percent last season.

Weekly WNBA Numbers, Featuring TS%

In the long run, I don't think the lopsided nature of the Storm's loss yesterday at Washington means much of anything. It does mean their numbers are no longer as dominant as we take our weekly look at WNBA advanced stats. Detroit has passed the Storm in expected wins based on point differential projected to a full 34-game season, though Seattle remains tops in the Western Conference.

Team          ExpW    Team          ExpW
------------------    ------------------
Seattle       20.1    Detroit       22.0
Minnesota     19.4    Connecticut   19.7
San Antonio   19.3    New York      18.7
Los Angeles   19.0    Indiana       18.6
Phoenix       16.8    Chicago       15.8
Houston       16.0    Washington    12.0
Sacramento    15.5    Atlanta        5.2

According to point differential, four teams have separated themselves in the West but are all tightly-bunched. In the real standings, Minnesota (11-11) would not make the postseason if it started today. The Lynx are only a half-game ahead of Phoenix and Houston and are a half-game back of Sacramento, which by differential has no business in the playoffs. I cannot emphasize enough how hilarious it is that the Monarchs were criticized in Sacramento a couple weeks ago for being unable to win close games. After yesterday's win in Detroit, Sacramento is now 5-3 in games decided by five points or fewer and 10-5 in games decided by single-digits. With DeMya Walker added to the mix, the Monarchs might improve their differential down the stretch to match their record. Still, Minnesota has to be considered the favorite for the last playoff spot in the West.

Washington had the weirdest differential week ever, losing by 21 and 37 and then winning by 32. The net result was the Mystics stayed just about the same in the expected wins standings.

Alright, to the leaders in Offensive and Defensive Rating on a per-possession basis.

Team          ORating     Team          DRating
---------------------     ---------------------
Phoenix         107.5     Indiana          89.7
Minnesota       103.6     Seattle          94.1
Detroit         103.0     Los Angeles      94.3
Connecticut     101.8     San Antonio      93.6
New York        100.7     Detroit          96.3
Seattle          99.4     Houston          98.1
Chicago          98.9     Washington       98.6
          AVERAGE          98.6
Sacramento       98.3     Connecticut      99.0
San Antonio      98.2     New York         99.0
Los Angeles      97.5     Chicago          99.9
Houston          95.1     Minnesota       100.5
Atlanta          93.0     Sacramento      100.5
Indiana          92.4     Atlanta         106.6
Washington       91.6     Phoenix         108.2

The Detroit offense got clicking last week, moving up from fifth in the league to third. Deanna Nolan was a big reason why, scoring 53 points on 22-of-38 shooting in games over the weekend against Washington and Sacramento. Still, why isn't Nolan mentioned more often as an inconsistent scorer? That output followed 16 total points in her previous three games.

To the individual stats. Here are the leaders by Player Efficiency Rating, minimum 250 minutes.

Player              Tm   PER
----------------------------
Diana Taurasi      PHO  28.1
Lauren Jackson     SEA  27.4
Sancho Lyttle      HOU  26.5
Lindsay Whalen     CON  26.2
Candace Parker     LAS  26.2
Cappie Pondexter   PHO  25.2
Sophia Young       SAS  25.2
Candice Wiggins    MIN  25.0
Tasha Humphrey     DET  24.5
Janel McCarville   NYL  24.4

At what point do we declare Lyttle legit? She's kept up MVP-caliber production for several weeks now. 378 minutes isn't a ton, but it's more than a fluke. Lyttle's net plus-minus (+10.1 points per 40 minutes) is 12th in the league. The newcomer this week is Humphrey, who now clears the 250-minute minimum and also improved her rating with 29 points and 17 rebounds in 55 minutes on 12-of-20 shooting.

We continue our look at a miscellaneous statistic each week. This week we'll highlight True Shooting Percentage, the best measure of a player's shooting efficiency. You can find TS% as PTS/(2*(FGA+(.44*FTA))). It's points per shooting percentage divided by two to be on the same scale as field-goal percentage. Here are the league leaders this season.

Player              Tm   TS%
----------------------------
Crystal Kelly      SAC  .656
Lisa Willis        NYL  .619
Sancho Lyttle      HOU  .619
Tasha Humphrey     DET  .611
Le'Coe Willingham  PHO  .607
Jamie Carey        CON  .604
Lindsay Whalen     CON  .595
Diana Taurasi      PHO  .593
Sidney Spencer     LAS  .591
Crystal Langhorne  WAS  .587

Naturally, this tends to favor role players who take advantage of open shots. It's very impressive for Whalen and Taurasi to make this list as go-to players for their teams. That's not to knock the role players on the list. Surely there are plenty of WNBA players who can't make those kinds of open shots.

Kelly has put up great numbers in limited minutes all year long as part of a deep Monarchs frontcourt. I hope Walker's return doesn't cut into her playing time too much. Willingham's presence shows part of why the Mercury hasn't missed the über-efficient Penny Taylor as much on offense as we expected. Langhorne has shown up consecutive weeks, first for rebounding and now for shooting efficiency.

Why is True Shooting Percentage a better measure than field-goal percentage? Willis is a good example. She's shooting just 40.9 percent from the field, but about two-thirds of her attempts are threes, which she's hitting at a 48.3 percent clip, and she's 21-of-22 from the free-throw line this season. Add it up and she's been extremely efficient. I use the term "secondary percentage" for the difference between a player's TS% and their FG%. Willis' secondary percentage is the biggest in the league.

If we take a look at the top players using at least 20 percent of their team's possessions (league average), the list is different.

Player              Tm   TS%
----------------------------
Tasha Humphrey     DET  .611
Lindsay Whalen     CON  .595
Diana Taurasi      PHO  .593
Ann Wauters        SAS  .578
Janel McCarville   NYL  .577
Katie Feenstra     ATL  .574
Candice Wiggins    MIN  .571
Candace Parker     LAS  .567
Seimone Augustus   MIN  .566
Lauren Jackson     SEA  .564

These are the truly devastating offensive forces, players who shoot a lot and shoot efficiently. Jackson usually leads this list, though her inconsistent three-point shooting drops her down this year. Wiggins is another great example of a player who is underrated by field-goal percentage, in her case more because she leads the WNBA in free throws than because of threes. As for Feenstra, she has scored very well this year but is turning the ball over on a horrendous 26.7 percent of her possessions, which is why the Dream has gone elsewhere in the post.

WNBA Numbers Update Shows Storm's Strength

I skipped out on last week's WNBA numbers in favor of a midseason Storm analysis. This week, we're back, and the numbers reveal just how well the Storm has played during its six-game winning streak. The Storm now has the best point differential in the league at +4.3 points per game. To reflect that, let's start our analysis with expected wins based on point differential projected to a full 34-game season.

Team          ExpW    Team          ExpW
------------------    ------------------
Seattle       21.8    Detroit       20.8
San Antonio   20.5    Connecticut   20.4
Minnesota     19.4    Indiana       18.5
Los Angeles   19.1    New York      18.4
Phoenix       15.5    Chicago       15.8
Houston       15.3    Washington    12.7
Sacramento    15.0    Atlanta        5.0

While the top of the West has pulled away a bit, the battle for the fourth and final playoff spot is still tight. 1.5 games separate Minnesota and last-place Houston. In terms of differential, the Lynx are way, way ahead of the back. The other three teams have slipped over the last week or two. The Silver Stars are on pace for 24 or 25 wins and continue to outplay their differential, as they did last year. Interesting. A good differential bodes well for postseason success, but I'd rather have the wins and home-court advantage.

Alright, to the leaders in Offensive and Defensive Rating on a per-possession basis.

Team          ORating     Team          DRating
---------------------     ---------------------
Phoenix         107.0     Indiana          89.8
Minnesota       102.9     Seattle          93.3
New York        102.0     San Antonio      93.5
Connecticut     101.8     Los Angeles      94.4
Detroit         101.4     Detroit          96.4
Seattle         100.8     Washington       97.6
Chicago          99.4     Houston          98.0
          AVERAGE          98.6
San Antonio      98.1     Connecticut      98.7
Los Angeles      97.9     Minnesota        99.7
Sacramento       97.8     Chicago         100.7
Houston          94.3     New York        100.7
Atlanta          93.1     Sacramento      100.9
Indiana          92.0     Atlanta         107.2
Washington       91.9     Phoenix         108.9

The Storm's stifling defense on Saturday has moved the team into second in the WNBA in Defensive Rating. Wha's interesting about these rankings is how little balance there is in the WNBA this season. The best offensive teams are not good on defense and vice versa. The Storm and Detroit are the only two teams who have been above-average at both ends of the floor so far this season.

Two really bad units on teams that dominate the other end: The Indiana offense and, of course, the Phoenix defense. Tamika Catchings' return hasn't helped the Fever the way everyone figured it would. Clearly, Catchings is not 100 percent. After a nice run in early July, last week she combined for nine points on 3-of-17 shooting in two games. As for the Mercury, it's not too early for me to put looking up the worst defenses in WNBA history on my to-do list.

To the individual stats. Here are the leaders by Player Efficiency Rating, minimum 250 minutes.

Player              Tm   PER
----------------------------
Diana Taurasi      PHO  28.1
Lauren Jackson     SEA  27.4
Lindsay Whalen     CON  27.0
Candace Parker     LAS  26.7
Sancho Lyttle      HOU  26.2
Sophia Young       SAS  25.9
Cappie Pondexter   PHO  25.4
Janel McCarville   NYL  25.2
Candice Dupree     CHI  24.6
Candice Wiggins    MIN  23.7

Jackson's run recently has her in position to potentially lead the WNBA in PER for the third straight season. Don't forget Whalen in that race. She was brilliant yesterday against Washington even in a Sun loss; I don't see how you could watch that game and come to the conclusion that anyone but Whalen is Connecticut's MVP. While we're talking MVP, don't leave Young out of that discussion. Not only is her PER sixth in the league, she's edged past Jackson and Storm teammate Sue Bird for the best net plus-minus rating in the league (as tracked by the indispensable Paul Swanson).

Lastly, I want to take a look at a miscellaneous statistic each week. We'll start with rebound percentage, the estimated percentage of all available rebounds that a player grabs while on the floor. Here are the league leaders this season.

Player              Tm  Reb%
----------------------------
Sancho Lyttle      HOU  19.1
Cheryl Ford        DET  18.9
Yolanda Griffith   SEA  18.3
Tiffany Jackson    NYL  17.7
Katie Feenstra     ATL  16.9
Michelle Snow      HOU  16.8
Crystal Langhorne  WAS  16.8
Rebekkah Brunson   SAC  16.8
Lisa Leslie        LAS  16.1
Nakia Sanford      WAS  16.0

Lyttle has averaged 9.1 rebounds per game as a starter. The Comets wisely have gone back to the big lineup with Lyttle, Snow and Tina Thompson in the frontcourt that was so successful for them a year ago.

I don't think Griffith's rebounding has gotten enough credit this season, especially from the people who like fixate on her age. What's really impressive is that Griffith has changed her game to become a much better defensive rebounder because of the Storm's need on the defensive glass. (Alternatively, maybe the white-line defense was keeping Griffith from establishing good defensive position.)

The one name on this list that was a surprise to me was Langhorne, who has been a force in the glass and an effective finisher in the paint as a rookie. Langhorne has been overshadowed by the depth of the rookie class, but she's got a bright future in Washington.

Now the Storm by rebound percentage:

Player              Tm  Reb%
----------------------------
Yolanda Griffith   SEA  18.3
Shyra Ely          SEA  12.8
Lauren Jackson     SEA  12.4
Ashley Robinson    SEA  11.7
Sheryl Swoopes     SEA  10.7
Swin Cash          SEA  10.6
Camille Little     SEA   9.9
Tanisha Wright     SEA   8.1
Katie Gearlds      SEA   6.5
Sue Bird           SEA   5.7

By definition, league average for rebound percentage is 10 percent (because there's 10 players on the court at any time); six Storm players clear that mark with Little essentially at it. When the Storm rebounds well, as it has lately, it's by committee. In particular, when Swoopes is at shooting guard her rebounding is a major asset for the Storm.

CP3 by the Numbers

With the Los Angeles Sparks and Candace Parker coming to KeyArena tomorrow (7:00 p.m., FSN, 1150 AM KKNW, TIX), I was curious whether Parker's strong start has her on pace to post the best rookie season of all time. This is the kind of question my WARP rating system is well-equipped to answer, estimating how valuable a player is to their team in terms of the wins they offer as compared to a replacement-level player.

Before 2008, these were the top 10 rookie seasons in WNBA history.

Player              Year  Team  WARP
------------------------------------
Tamika Catchings    2002   IND  11.2
Lauren Jackson      2001   SEA   6.4
Diana Taurasi       2004   PHO   6.2
Betty Lennox        2000   MIN   5.5
Sue Bird            2002   SEA   5.2
Alana Beard         2004   WAS   5.1
Chamique Holdsclaw  1999   WAS   5.1
Swin Cash           2002   DET   5.0
Tamika Williams     2002   MIN   4.4
Cappie Pondexter    2006   PHO   4.4

Considering the Storm has two of the top five rookie seasons ever, it's strange that the team has never had a Rookie of the Year. Sue Bird had the misfortune of going up against the best debut season the league has ever seen, when Tamika Catchings finished as the runner-up for MVP as a rookie. As for Lauren Jackson, well, there's no way to sugercoat it. She was robbed. Portland's Jackie Stiles won the award with 1.8 WARP, a figure dwarfed by Jackson's 6.4 WARP. Ah, well - LJ's never been in it for the awards.

Anyways, how do this year's top rookies compare? Here's the top six, projected to a full 34-game season.

Player              Team  WARP
------------------------------
Candace Parker       LAS   9.4
Candice Wiggins      MIN   6.0
Nicky Anosike        MIN   4.7
Alexis Hornbuckle    DET   2.9
Crystal Kelly        SAC   2.2
Sylvia Fowles        CHI   1.8

It's unlikely Parker will quite catch her fellow Tennessee alumna, but her rookie season has certainly been outstanding. Wiggins has been great in her own right and would have a chance for the second-best rookie season in league history were it not for Parker. Anosike has been legitimately outstanding and is having the best rookie season ever for a non-first-round pick (a title previously held by Michelle Brogan or, if you want to limit to college players, Tammy Sutton-Brown).

As for Fowles, on a per-minute basis she rates better than Wiggins, but her knee injury has naturally limited her total value.

Weekly Look at WNBA Stats

Two teams, Connecticut and Detroit, have hit the midway point of their seasons. The Storm will be there on Thursday. Let's take a look at the numbers, shall we?

Team          ORating     Team          DRating
---------------------     ---------------------
Phoenix         106.6     Los Angeles      90.4
Minnesota       103.0     Indiana          90.8
Connecticut     102.3     San Antonio      93.7
Detroit         101.9     Seattle          94.9
Chicago         101.4     Detroit          96.3
New York        101.2     Washington       96.7
Los Angeles      99.2     Houston          96.9
AVERAGE          98.4     Connecticut      98.4
Seattle          97.4     AVERAGE          98.4
San Antonio      96.9     Minnesota        99.2
Sacramento       96.0     Sacramento       99.9
Houston          94.2     New York        100.6
Atlanta          93.0     Chicago         101.6
Washington       92.1     Phoenix         107.6
Indiana          91.3     Atlanta         110.4

The Mercury offense continues surging. A week ago, Phoenix's Offensive Rating was 104.5, and it was 102.8 a week before. I'm pretty sure there's a Mercury rising joke in there somewhere. Phoenix's defense continues to be as bad as ever. Who knew Penny Taylor was really a defensive specialist?

A change at the top of the Defensive Ratings leaderboard, with the Sparks passing Indiana for the title of stingiest defense. The Storm made a nice push forward on the strength of yesterday's dominant defensive effort against Washington. Connecticut's defense is slipping a little.

The Dream's offense has been pretty good lately. However, Atlanta's defense has been as bad as ever, keeping the team winless.

Team          ExpW    Team          ExpW
------------------    ------------------
Los Angeles   23.7    Connecticut   21.7
Minnesota     20.3    Detroit       21.5
San Antonio   19.2    New York      17.7
Seattle       17.6    Indiana       17.3
Houston       16.3    Chicago       16.6
Phoenix       16.2    Washington    12.7
Sacramento    13.6    Atlanta        2.6

For the first time all year, the Sparks lead the league in Expected Wins. That really has more to do with the Sun and Shock beating each other up than the Sparks playing well, given they lost last week. Minnesota '08 is like Storm '07 in terms of winning by a lot and losing by a little. (Also, the Lynx have a really good offense and an average defense, like last year's Storm. Maybe it's something about Alan Horton?)

The Western Conference isn't quite as close in terms of differential as in the standings, where two games separate second place and seventh. However, Minnesota and Phoenix are all very tight. The Monarchs remain the odd team out of this group by differential.

Player              Tm   PER
----------------------------
Diana Taurasi      PHO  30.5
Lauren Jackson     SEA  26.9
Candace Parker     LAS  25.9
Sophia Young       SAS  25.3
Lindsay Whalen     CON  24.9
Cappie Pondexter   PHO  24.8
Candice Wiggins    MIN  24.7
Janel McCarville   NYL  24.6
Lisa Leslie        LAS  23.5
Seimone Augustus   MIN  23.3

Sancho Lyttle      HOU  26.9  162 mins.
Sylvia Fowles      CHI  24.6  123
Tasha Humphrey     DET  23.8  166

In addition to the top 10 in PER, I've listed the players who would appear had they played enough minutes to qualify (I'm going with 200 as the current cutoff).

Taurasi has been hot, hot, hot lately and has pulled away from the rest of the league in PER. Parker also made a move up the charts, while Whalen has slumped a little.

The most interesting player here might be Lyttle. Her last two games in place of an injured Tina Thompson have been unreal: 38 points, 16 rebounds, six assists, nine steals, 17-for-21 shooting. Yikes! Find her some minutes when Thompson gets healthy.

WNBA Numbers Update

The latest weekly update on the advanced WNBA statistics shows a lot of interesting movement. Let's start with per-possession offense and defense, shall we?

Team          ORating     Team          DRating
---------------------     ---------------------
Phoenix         104.5     Indiana          88.9
Minnesota       103.3     Los Angeles      91.0
Detroit         102.5     San Antonio      92.9
Connecticut     102.1     Detroit          95.1
New York        101.9     Washington       96.0
Chicago         101.2     Seattle          96.1
Los Angeles      99.7     Connecticut      96.8
Seattle          98.5     Houston          97.8
AVERAGE          98.0     AVERAGE          98.0
San Antonio      96.4     New York         98.9
Sacramento       95.1     Sacramento       99.6
Washington       92.9     Minnesota        99.9
Houston          92.6     Chicago         101.5
Indiana          90.8     Phoenix         109.0
Atlanta          90.6     Atlanta         109.1

For the first time all year, it is the Phoenix Mercury that boasts the league's best offense. With Le'coe Willingham playing great basketball, the Mercury has missed Penny Taylor on offense much less than we expected. On the other end ... not so much.

The trend for Minnesota's Offensive Rating isn't good. Two weeks ago, the Lynx were at 110.7. Last week, that dropped to 105.9, still good enough to lead the league. Now, their rating is 103.3. Naturally, that's gone hand-in-hand with a five-game Minnesota losing streak.

Connecticut took a hit at both ends of the floor during a five-game road trip despite going 3-2.

From a more positive perspective, the New York Liberty boasted the league's worst offense a year ago. Now, the Liberty sits fifth in the league. Remarkable turnaround. And since when have the Mystics been a defensive force?

Let's look at the standings based on point differential, shown by expected wins over the course of the 34-game season.

Team          ExpW    Team          ExpW
------------------    ------------------
Los Angeles   23.8    Detroit       24.4
San Antonio   19.7    Connecticut   22.4
Minnesota     19.4    New York      20.0
Seattle       17.6    Indiana       18.8
Houston       14.2    Chicago       15.8
Phoenix       13.4    Washington    13.5
Sacramento    13.2    Atlanta        1.8

The Sun and Silver Stars tumble. In the actual West standings, Minnesota and Sacramento are tied at 6-6. A look at point differential shows that the Lynx (who have lost six games by a combined 27 points) has played much better than Sacramento (whose six losses are by a combined 83 points). In the East, Washington is a game and a half up on Chicago in the standings, but the Sky has been the far more competitive team.

As usual, we wrap up with the leaders in John Hollinger's PER for individual players.

Player              Tm   PER
----------------------------
Tasha Humphrey     DET  33.4
Diana Taurasi      PHO  29.4
Lauren Jackson     SEA  26.9
Lindsay Whalen     CON  26.3
Janel McCarville   NYL  25.8
Tiffany Jackson    NYL  25.4
Lisa Leslie        LAS  25.4
Cappie Pondexter   PHO  25.1
Sophia Young       SAS  25.0
Candice Wiggins    MIN  24.9

Humphrey just snuck over the 100-minute threshold for entry (she's played precisely 100 minutes) and thus leads the league, almost entirely on the strength of her huge game against Phoenix on ABC. We'll see if she keeps up that pace. Taurasi has caught fire for the Mercury and leads the legitimate regulars.

You could probably surprise a lot of people by telling them that, statistically, the best frontcourt duo in the league plays for the New York Liberty. McCarville has played great since a slow start, while Jackson has been terrific off the bench all year. (Still, I'm going for Leslie and Candace Parker, who ranks 11th, if I'm picking top duos.)

Weekly WNBA Numbers

A day late because of the rare Monday Storm home game, let's take a look at the numbers around the WNBA. I was also delayed putting together a column looking at the surprising depth of the league's rookie class thus far, so be sure to give that a look.

We start with the Offensive and Defensive Ratings. These numbers do not include last night's games.

Team          ORating     Team          DRating
---------------------     ---------------------
Minnesota       105.9     Indiana          85.9
Connecticut     103.2     Los Angeles      91.3
Phoenix         102.8     San Antonio      93.9
Chicago         101.4     Detroit          94.5
Detroit         100.7     Connecticut      95.3
Los Angeles      99.5     Seattle          96.5
New York         99.5     Chicago          96.7
Seattle          98.1     AVERAGE          97.8
AVERAGE          97.8     New York         98.5
San Antonio      95.0     Washington       99.4
Sacramento       94.6     Minnesota        99.6
Washington       93.5     Sacramento       99.8
Houston          92.5     Houston         100.5
Atlanta          92.1     Phoenix         108.3
Indiana          90.2     Atlanta         112.4

The Lynx have come back to the pack a bit on offense, but still lead the league. New York's offense has been surprisingly potent in the early going, and seeing Chicago fourth in the league is also something of a surprise.

At the defensive end, Indiana remains way, way ahead of the rest of the league. Atlanta remains way, way behind - but so too is Phoenix. That kind of poor defense is going to be difficult for the Mercury to overcome and is unexpected with the team playing less smallball this season. San Antonio's defense really picked up last week in wins over the Storm and especially the offense-poor Fever.

How about the standings based on point differential, shown in expected wins over a 34-game season.

Team          ExpW    Team          ExpW
------------------    ------------------
Los Angeles   23.0    Connecticut   23.8
Minnesota     21.3    Detroit       23.1
San Antonio   18.3    Indiana       20.4
Seattle       17.6    Chicago       19.8
Sacramento    12.9    New York      18.2
Phoenix       12.8    Washington    11.2
Houston       11.8    Atlanta        1.9

Both conferences are fairly tight at the top with a gap. In the West, that's after fourth place. In the East, five teams are in serious contention for four playoff spots. Congrats to Atlanta, which finally is projected to actual wins over the course of the season.

We'll wrap it up with a look at the individual leaders in John Hollinger's PER rating.

Player              Tm   PER
----------------------------
Lindsay Whalen     CON  28.0
Candice Wiggins    MIN  26.1
Diana Taurasi      PHO  25.9
Lauren Jackson     SEA  25.7
Cappie Pondexter   PHO  25.2
Sophia Young       SAS  25.2
Sylvia Fowles      CHI  25.0
Lisa Leslie        LAS  24.0
Candace Parker     LAS  23.9
Tiffany Jackson    NYL  23.7

Whalen remains the league's early leader in PER, though I think that went down last night as Tanisha Wright blanketed her defensively. Wiggins has proven tremendous at getting to the free-throw line, attempting a league-high 68 free throws (Swin Cash, before last night, was second with 67. She does benefit from the Storm playing so many games so far).

WNBA Stats Update

Scary thought: By the end of this week, the Storm will be more than a third of the way through the 2008 campaign. The Storm and the Detroit Shock are the only teams in the league who have played nine games (three of them are sitting on six games so far), but this season is moving right along. Let's check in on the advanced numbers, shall we?

Team          ORating     Team          DRating
---------------------     ---------------------
Minnesota       110.7     Indiana          83.8
Connecticut     104.4     Los Angeles      91.0
Phoenix         104.4     Detroit          93.4
Chicago         104.1     Connecticut      94.5
Detroit         101.6     Seattle          96.3
Seattle          98.8     New York         97.1
AVERAGE          98.3     Chicago          97.4
Los Angeles      97.3     San Antonio      98.0
New York         97.2     AVERAGE          98.3
San Antonio      94.5     Minnesota        98.4
Houston          92.9     Sacramento      100.0
Washington       92.6     Washington      100.7
Sacramento       92.6     Houston         102.6
Indiana          92.6     Phoenix         108.4
Atlanta          91.6     Atlanta         115.1

It's not too early to begin discussing where the Indiana Fever ranks amongst the best defenses in WNBA history. It's also not too early to consider whether the Atlanta Dream is the worst defense this league has ever seen. Yikes! The Minnesota Lynx offense shows no signs of slowing, while it is the Connecticut Sun of all teams that has the league's best balance, ranking in the top four in both offense and defense.

How about the standings based on point differential and expected wins over the course of the 34-game season?

Team          ExpW    Team          ExpW
------------------    ------------------
Minnesota     25.3    Connecticut   25.0
Los Angeles   22.2    Indiana       24.3
Seattle       18.6    Detroit       24.1
San Antonio   14.8    Chicago       21.3
Phoenix       14.4    New York      17.8
Sacramento    11.2    Washington     9.2
Houston       10.0    Atlanta        0.0

Despite losing their first game, the Lynx remain the WNBA's best team in terms of differential. Indiana deserves great credit for playing so well without Tamika Catchings. The big surprise to me, however, is that the East has been so much stronger than the West in the early going ... although it probably doesn't hurt to get to play the Dream so frequently. Consecutive victories over Atlanta by a combined 35 points did wonders for Chicago's differential.

Let's look at the individuals.

Player              Tm   PER
----------------------------
Lindsay Whalen     CON  30.0
Sophia Young       SAS  26.6
Cappie Pondexter   PHO  26.3
Lauren Jackson     SEA  25.7
Diana Taurasi      PHO  25.1
Seimone Augustus   MIN  25.1
Candace Parker     LAS  25.0
Sylvia Fowles      CHI  24.7
Tiffany Jackson    NYL  24.4
Plenette Pierson   DET  24.1

How about some love for Lindsay Whalen? Whalen is, by my measure, the best passer in the league (just ahead of New York's rookie surprise, Leilani Mitchell). She's also pulling down nearly six rebounds per game from the point and shooting over 50% from the field. Can we get her a spot on the U.S. Olympic Team?

The combination of a strong week and several other players dropping off has Lauren Jackson up to fourth in the league in PER. That probably won't be where she tops out.

Can we quiet the Candace Parker for MVP talk a little? Parker is terrific, and it's a matter of when, not if she gets her first WNBA triple-double. However, Parker's efficiency leaves much to be desired at this point of her young career.

Most of the surprising players have dropped off a little lately, but New York's Tiffany Jackson has surged. Per 40 minutes, she's averaging 18.8 points, 11.3 rebounds and 3.3 steals.

WNBA Numbers Update

Two full weeks into the 2008 WNBA season, the advanced statistics have settled down ... slightly. With the Minnesota Lynx as the league's last undefeated team at 4-0, there are still some surprises.

Let's look first at the per-possession numbers on offense and defense.

Team          ORating     Team          DRating
---------------------     ---------------------
Minnesota       111.6     Indiana          81.6
Connecticut     104.2     Los Angeles      86.2
Detroit         100.0     Detroit          91.3
Phoenix         100.0     Connecticut      92.3
Seattle          99.5     Seattle          93.5
Chicago          98.7     AVERAGE          96.5
AVERAGE          96.5     Minnesota        96.6
Los Angeles      96.4     Washington       97.4
San Antonio      96.0     Sacramento       98.3
New York         92.9     New York         98.8
Sacramento       91.8     Chicago          99.4
Washington       90.2     San Antonio      99.5
Houston          89.9     Houston         102.0
Indiana          89.9     Phoenix         108.9
Atlanta          88.8     Atlanta         115.0

Two teams in the league are playing games unlike anyone else at one end of the floor. The Minnesota Lynx are in a league of their own on offense, while the Indiana Fever has been otherworldly at the defensive end of the floor even without former Defensive Player of the Year Tamika Catchings.

I was surprised to see the Storm come out so balanced; it certainly feels like the team has been much better at the defensive end of the floor than the offensive end so far, though that might have something to do with the team's slow pace.

So far, the Los Angeles Sparks have been way overrated on offense but underrated on defense. I doubt that will continue to be so extreme the rest of the season, but that actually doesn't surprise me that much. The Sparks backcourt doesn't offer a lot of shooting, and the team's length is going to be very hard for opposing teams to combat.

How about the projected standings as based on point differential, converted to expected wins over the course of the 34-game season.

Team          ExpW    Team          ExpW
------------------    ------------------
Minnesota     27.4    Connecticut   26.0
Los Angeles   25.7    Detroit       24.7
Seattle       22.4    Indiana       23.7
San Antonio   14.2    Chicago       15.9
Sacramento    10.5    New York      14.2
Phoenix       10.0    Washington     9.8
Houston        8.9    Atlanta        0.0

Three elite teams and then a drop-off in both conferences. Though Houston and Phoenix are winless, both have been very competitive (losing by a combined five points to the Storm) and should put one in the win column soon. For an alternative advanced look at rating teams, check out commenter Petrel's effort to recreate John Hollinger's power ratings at the RebKell boards.

Last but surely not least, let's take a look at the individual leaders in Hollinger's PER rating.

Player              Tm   PER
----------------------------
Sophia Young       SAS  32.6
Lindsay Whalen     CON  31.4
Sylvia Fowles      CHI  28.4
Plenette Pierson   DET  27.7
Candice Dupree     CHI  27.5
Charde Houston     MIN  27.0
Nicky Anosike      MIN  26.5
Candace Parker     LAS  26.3
Erika DeSouza      ATL  26.2
Cappie Pondexter   PHO  26.0

It's early, of course, but still a lot of surprising names remain in the top 10. How about the performance of rookies around the league so far? Three of them rate in the top 10, while Essence Carson (23.2), Candice Wiggins (22.4), Alexis Hornbuckle (21.6) and Erlana Larkins (20.6) are all playing at a high level.

The Storm's leader in PER is Swin Cash (25.5), who ranks 12th in the league.

A First Look at WNBA Numbers

Though the Storm is more than a tenth of the way through the 2008 season, it's still very early. Nothing shows that more than the fact that 10 days into the season the Minnesota Lynx is still sitting on one game played. Still, it's never too early to at least glance at the advanced statistics.

In terms of Offensive Rating, the surprising 3-0 Connecticut Sun laps the rest of the league.

Team       ORating
------------------
Connecticut  114.8
Los Angeles  109.4
Minnesota    106.6
Phoenix      102.1
San Antonio  101.1
Chicago      100.3
Detroit       99.0
Seattle       98.8
AVERAGE       96.5
Sacramento    90.6
New York      90.2
Indiana       89.7
Houston       85.2
Atlanta       84.0
Washington    83.8

Talk about a disparity between the haves and the have-nots - look at that gap between the Storm and the Monarchs, bridged only by league average. That San Antonio's offense has played so well early despite some subpar shooting from Becky Hammon and two games without Ann Wauters should make the rest of the WNBA afraid. Very afraid.

Team       DRating
------------------
Indiana       83.8
Connecticut   84.9
Minnesota     86.7
Los Angeles   90.5
Detroit       91.3
New York      93.7
Chicago       94.3
Washington    95.0
San Antonio   95.9
AVERAGE       96.5
Seattle       98.2
Houston      100.9
Sacramento   102.9
Phoenix      107.0
Atlanta      114.3

Definitely a skewed distribution in terms of Defensive Rating; nine of the 14 teams in the league are above-average, in no small part because the Dream's defense has been a nightmare. (Sorry, bad pun.) Phoenix's defense also has to be a major concern - weren't the Mercury supposed to be better at that end with traditional post players? Don't look for Connecticut and Minnesota to maintain their lofty defensive perches, but the Fever might easily lead the league in Defensive Rating wire to wire.

Too early for Pythagorean records, at least as long as the Sun is projected to win more than 34 games and Atlanta to lose more than 34. Moving ahead, here are your early leaders in PER, including some surprising names.

Player              Tm   PER
----------------------------
Charde Houston     MIN  43.1
Sidney Spencer     LAS  37.7
Katie Douglas      IND  34.7
Sophia Young       SAS  34.4
Lisa Leslie        LAS  33.9
Candace Parker     LAS  32.9
Lindsay Whalen     CON  31.2
Nicky Anosike      MIN  30.9
Candice Dupree     CHI  30.2
Plenette Pierson   DET  29.2

I don't count on Houston, Spencer and Anosike staying up there with more minutes, but Pierson's fast start might not be a fluke. Bill Laimbeer ought to get her more time so the Shock gets off to better starts.

Final WNBA Stats

Ah, there's nothing quite like the day after the end of the season for the statistical analyst. All the numbers are final and in the books. Let's take a look, shall we?

League Level

The final WNBA Offensive Rating of 98.5 points per 100 possessions was essentially unchanged from last year's 98.6 mark. However, the league pace went up from 75.9 possessions per game to 77.8, which meant average scoring was up from 74.9 to 76.6 points per game.

One thing I never touched on here was the stunning improvement in league-wide free-throw shooting. The WNBA's FT% went from 74.3% to 77.5%. Three-point percentage was also up from 33.5% to 34.8%, while two-point percentage was down from 45.0% to 44.3% (more physical play in the paint).

Turnover percentage went up from 17.6% to 18.2%; I bet if you had the numbers tracked like this, you'd find the entire difference was attributable to an increase in traveling/palming violations.

UPDATE: Paul Swanson contributes these numbers and confirms my suspicion. Traveling/Dribbling turnovers increased from 1.4% of possessions in 2006 to 2.4% in 2007.

Offensive Rating

Team          ORtg
------------------
Phoenix      106.5
Seattle      104.9
Detroit      100.7
Connecticut  100.1
San Antonio   98.4
Minnesota     97.5
Sacramento    97.5
Washington    97.0
Chicago       96.6
Indiana       96.2
Houston       95.9
Los Angeles   94.4
New York      94.2

The two best offenses in the WNBA square off at KeyArena on Friday. Think this is going to be a fun series? ... It's hard to believe Indiana was third in the WNBA in offense at the time Tamika Catchings was injured; the Fever's offense was already sliding a little, but went off a cliff without Catchings. Indiana's defense, as we'll see, was not as affected by the injury. ... Usually when the worst offensive team in the league makes the playoffs, it's on the strength of defense, but the Liberty isn't that good on D.

Defensive Rating

Team          ORtg
------------------
Indiana       91.4
Detroit       94.6
Sacramento    95.2
San Antonio   97.1
Connecticut   97.2
New York      97.2
Washington    99.4
Houston      100.2
Chicago      100.3
Seattle      100.6
Phoenix      101.1
Los Angeles  101.8
Minnesota    104.2

Places where you will be hearing the phrase "defense wins championships": Indiana, Detroit, Sacramento and San Antonio (though the Silver Stars are more good than great defensively). Places where you will not be hearing the phrase "defense wins championships": Seattle, Phoenix. Whoever wins the Storm-Mercury series will have point differential on their side (as you'll see in a moment), but a substantial defensive disadvantage.

Pythagorean Standings

Again, the standings based on expected wins (as calculated from point differential):

WEST          ExpW   EAST          ExpW
------------------   ------------------
Phoenix       21.0   Detroit       22.2
Seattle       19.9   Indiana       20.6
Sacramento    18.5   Connecticut   19.7
San Antonio   18.1   Washington    15.2
Minnesota     13.2   Chicago       14.2
Houston       13.1   New York      14.1
Los Angeles   11.2

Based on point differential, the Phoenix-Storm series should be the Western Conference Finals, not an opening-round series. The Silver Stars saw their differential take a hit playing reserves in yesterday's 26-point blowout loss at Minnesota, but even if we take out that game San Antonio only improves to 18.9 expected wins.

In the East, the last team in differential made the playoffs, but New York wasn't significantly behind Washington and Chicago.

Worth noting: the league-wide parity by differential. Detroit isn't nearly as dominant in terms of differential, not anywhere near some of the league's best teams of all times, while even the league's second (or third) division was competitive.