Weekly WNBA Numbers, Featuring TS%

In the long run, I don't think the lopsided nature of the Storm's loss yesterday at Washington means much of anything. It does mean their numbers are no longer as dominant as we take our weekly look at WNBA advanced stats. Detroit has passed the Storm in expected wins based on point differential projected to a full 34-game season, though Seattle remains tops in the Western Conference.

Team          ExpW    Team          ExpW
------------------    ------------------
Seattle       20.1    Detroit       22.0
Minnesota     19.4    Connecticut   19.7
San Antonio   19.3    New York      18.7
Los Angeles   19.0    Indiana       18.6
Phoenix       16.8    Chicago       15.8
Houston       16.0    Washington    12.0
Sacramento    15.5    Atlanta        5.2

According to point differential, four teams have separated themselves in the West but are all tightly-bunched. In the real standings, Minnesota (11-11) would not make the postseason if it started today. The Lynx are only a half-game ahead of Phoenix and Houston and are a half-game back of Sacramento, which by differential has no business in the playoffs. I cannot emphasize enough how hilarious it is that the Monarchs were criticized in Sacramento a couple weeks ago for being unable to win close games. After yesterday's win in Detroit, Sacramento is now 5-3 in games decided by five points or fewer and 10-5 in games decided by single-digits. With DeMya Walker added to the mix, the Monarchs might improve their differential down the stretch to match their record. Still, Minnesota has to be considered the favorite for the last playoff spot in the West.

Washington had the weirdest differential week ever, losing by 21 and 37 and then winning by 32. The net result was the Mystics stayed just about the same in the expected wins standings.

Alright, to the leaders in Offensive and Defensive Rating on a per-possession basis.

Team          ORating     Team          DRating
---------------------     ---------------------
Phoenix         107.5     Indiana          89.7
Minnesota       103.6     Seattle          94.1
Detroit         103.0     Los Angeles      94.3
Connecticut     101.8     San Antonio      93.6
New York        100.7     Detroit          96.3
Seattle          99.4     Houston          98.1
Chicago          98.9     Washington       98.6
          AVERAGE          98.6
Sacramento       98.3     Connecticut      99.0
San Antonio      98.2     New York         99.0
Los Angeles      97.5     Chicago          99.9
Houston          95.1     Minnesota       100.5
Atlanta          93.0     Sacramento      100.5
Indiana          92.4     Atlanta         106.6
Washington       91.6     Phoenix         108.2

The Detroit offense got clicking last week, moving up from fifth in the league to third. Deanna Nolan was a big reason why, scoring 53 points on 22-of-38 shooting in games over the weekend against Washington and Sacramento. Still, why isn't Nolan mentioned more often as an inconsistent scorer? That output followed 16 total points in her previous three games.

To the individual stats. Here are the leaders by Player Efficiency Rating, minimum 250 minutes.

Player              Tm   PER
----------------------------
Diana Taurasi      PHO  28.1
Lauren Jackson     SEA  27.4
Sancho Lyttle      HOU  26.5
Lindsay Whalen     CON  26.2
Candace Parker     LAS  26.2
Cappie Pondexter   PHO  25.2
Sophia Young       SAS  25.2
Candice Wiggins    MIN  25.0
Tasha Humphrey     DET  24.5
Janel McCarville   NYL  24.4

At what point do we declare Lyttle legit? She's kept up MVP-caliber production for several weeks now. 378 minutes isn't a ton, but it's more than a fluke. Lyttle's net plus-minus (+10.1 points per 40 minutes) is 12th in the league. The newcomer this week is Humphrey, who now clears the 250-minute minimum and also improved her rating with 29 points and 17 rebounds in 55 minutes on 12-of-20 shooting.

We continue our look at a miscellaneous statistic each week. This week we'll highlight True Shooting Percentage, the best measure of a player's shooting efficiency. You can find TS% as PTS/(2*(FGA+(.44*FTA))). It's points per shooting percentage divided by two to be on the same scale as field-goal percentage. Here are the league leaders this season.

Player              Tm   TS%
----------------------------
Crystal Kelly      SAC  .656
Lisa Willis        NYL  .619
Sancho Lyttle      HOU  .619
Tasha Humphrey     DET  .611
Le'Coe Willingham  PHO  .607
Jamie Carey        CON  .604
Lindsay Whalen     CON  .595
Diana Taurasi      PHO  .593
Sidney Spencer     LAS  .591
Crystal Langhorne  WAS  .587

Naturally, this tends to favor role players who take advantage of open shots. It's very impressive for Whalen and Taurasi to make this list as go-to players for their teams. That's not to knock the role players on the list. Surely there are plenty of WNBA players who can't make those kinds of open shots.

Kelly has put up great numbers in limited minutes all year long as part of a deep Monarchs frontcourt. I hope Walker's return doesn't cut into her playing time too much. Willingham's presence shows part of why the Mercury hasn't missed the über-efficient Penny Taylor as much on offense as we expected. Langhorne has shown up consecutive weeks, first for rebounding and now for shooting efficiency.

Why is True Shooting Percentage a better measure than field-goal percentage? Willis is a good example. She's shooting just 40.9 percent from the field, but about two-thirds of her attempts are threes, which she's hitting at a 48.3 percent clip, and she's 21-of-22 from the free-throw line this season. Add it up and she's been extremely efficient. I use the term "secondary percentage" for the difference between a player's TS% and their FG%. Willis' secondary percentage is the biggest in the league.

If we take a look at the top players using at least 20 percent of their team's possessions (league average), the list is different.

Player              Tm   TS%
----------------------------
Tasha Humphrey     DET  .611
Lindsay Whalen     CON  .595
Diana Taurasi      PHO  .593
Ann Wauters        SAS  .578
Janel McCarville   NYL  .577
Katie Feenstra     ATL  .574
Candice Wiggins    MIN  .571
Candace Parker     LAS  .567
Seimone Augustus   MIN  .566
Lauren Jackson     SEA  .564

These are the truly devastating offensive forces, players who shoot a lot and shoot efficiently. Jackson usually leads this list, though her inconsistent three-point shooting drops her down this year. Wiggins is another great example of a player who is underrated by field-goal percentage, in her case more because she leads the WNBA in free throws than because of threes. As for Feenstra, she has scored very well this year but is turning the ball over on a horrendous 26.7 percent of her possessions, which is why the Dream has gone elsewhere in the post.