Monday, July 28, 2008

Pre-Olympic Break Stats (including TO Rate)

After a wild week, the WNBA now heads into the Olympic break, giving us a month to think about how things are going to shake out down the stretch. The Eastern Conference has tightened up at the top, with a half-game separating Connecticut, Detroit and New York and the Shock without Cheryl Ford for the rest of the season. There's a little separation after San Antonio and the Storm in the West, but Houston, Los Angeles, Minnesota and Sacramento all have either 12 or 13 losses fighting for two playoff spots.

How do things stand in terms of point differential? Here are the standings using expected full-season wins based on differential.

Team          ExpW    Team          ExpW
------------------ ------------------
San Antonio 19.6 Connecticut 21.5
Seattle 19.5 Detroit 20.1
Minnesota 19.2 New York 19.3
Los Angeles 18.0 Indiana 17.6
Houston 17.6 Chicago 15.2
Phoenix 16.8 Washington 11.6
Sacramento 16.7 Atlanta 5.3
The Minnesota Lynx continue to be the anomaly by differential. Their differential is virtually the same as the Storm's and San Antonio's, yet the Lynx are on the outside of the playoffs looking in. Sacramento's seven-game winning streak did surprisingly little for the team's differential, which remains worst in the West.

Connecticut looks strong in the East, though the Sun's differential got an artificial boost with a 26-point win over Los Angeles on Thursday with Lisa Leslie, DeLisha Milton-Jones and Candace Parker all suspended. Something tells me that game goes a little differently with them active, though I still would have made the Sun the favorites. New York still lags a bit in terms of differential.

Alright, to the leaders in Offensive and Defensive Rating on a per-possession basis.

Team          ORating     Team          DRating
--------------------- ---------------------
Phoenix 107.4 Indiana 91.7
Minnesota 103.3 Seattle 94.7
Connecticut 101.9 San Antonio 95.1
Detroit 101.9 Los Angeles 95.7
New York 100.9 Connecticut 97.6
Seattle 99.4 Detroit 97.7
AVERAGE 98.7 Houston 97.8
San Antonio 98.6 New York 98.4
Chicago 98.3 Sacramento 98.4
Sacramento 97.9 AVERAGE 98.7
Los Angeles 97.8 Washington 99.0
Houston 96.6 Chicago 99.6
Atlanta 92.8 Minnesota 100.3
Indiana 92.7 Atlanta 106.1
Washington 91.5 Phoenix 108.1
For the most part, things have settled in here. A couple of notable changes: Sacramento has surged up the defensive rankings during the winning streak, while the Lynx have slipped down ahead of just Atlanta and Phoenix.

To the individual stats. Here are the leaders by Player Efficiency Rating, minimum 250 minutes.
Player              Tm   PER
Diana Taurasi PHO 28.4
Sancho Lyttle HOU 27.2
Lauren Jackson SEA 27.1
Lindsay Whalen CON 27.0
Candace Parker LAS 25.7
Sophia Young SAS 25.2
Candice Wiggins MIN 24.6
Janel McCarville NYL 24.5
Cappie Pondexter PHO 23.3
Candice Dupree CHI 23.2
Not much movement at this point of the season. Lyttle topped out at 23 minutes last week, and she needs more time on the court.

We continue our look at a miscellaneous statistic each week. This week we'll highlight turnover percentage, which is pretty simply the percentage of a player or team's possessions that end in a turnover. I calculate this as TO/(FGA + (.44*FTA) + TO). Others will subtract offensive rebounds from the denominator, but I like the idea of a team's possessions being divided into those that end in shots from the field, trips to the free-throw line and turnovers and having those three add up to 100 percent.

Here's a look at how teams rate this season in terms of lowest turnover percentage (left) and highest opponent turnover percentage (right).

Team             TO%     Team             TO%
-------------------- --------------------
Phoenix 14.5 Sacramento 20.1
Minnesota 15.0 Indiana 19.6
Detroit 15.4 New York 19.3
Connecticut 16.0 Washington 18.9
Seattle 16.9 Detroit 18.9
Chicago 17.5 Minnesota 18.3
New York 18.0 Houston 18.3
Sacramento 18.4 San Antonio 17.4
San Antonio 18.7 Seattle 17.2
Atlanta 18.9 Atlanta 16.9
Houston 19.1 Chicago 16.5
Los Angeles 19.2 Connecticut 16.0
Indiana 19.5 Los Angeles 15.8
Washington 21.0 Phoenix 15.2
Everyone thinks high-paced games mean lots of sloppy play and turnovers, but really that's not the case for teams that shoot it before they have a chance to commit a turnover. San Antonio coughs it up more often than you would like for a contending team. In general, teams that really struggle with turnovers have issues at point guard.

For the most part, you have two different types of defenses - those that sit back and defend the shot and those that aggressively play for turnovers. The Storm, San Antonio and L.A. generally fit into the former group, while Sacramento and New York rely on turnovers. It's possible to be successful either way. Of course, the strongest defenses combine both, and Indiana is the best example of that this season.

How about at the individual level. Here are the players that turn it over least often.

Player              Tm   TO%
Kelly Mazzante PHO 7.5
Seimone Augustus MIN 8.5
Raff. Masciadri LAS 8.9
Cheryl Ford DET 8.9
Katie Gearlds SEA 9.4
Alison Bales ATL 9.5
Lauren Jackson SEA 9.6
Jia Perkins CHI 9.7
Sophia Young SAS 10.2
Diana Taurasi PHO 10.3
Again, Mazzante, Masciadri and Gearlds are examples of the "shoot it before you turn it over" philosophy. Many of the league's top players are very surehanded given how much offense they're creating. The outliers on this list are Ford and Bales.

Which players are most prone to turnovers?

Player              Tm   TO%
Nancy Lieberman DET 66.7
Kasha Terry ATL 31.7
Shannon Bobbitt LAS 31.5
Loree Moore NYL 31.0
Brooke Wyckoff CHI 30.6
Kristin Haynie ATL 30.1
A'Quon. Franklin SAC 28.1
Ruth Riley SAS 27.7
Kerri Gardin CON 27.5
Erica White HOU 26.9
Noelle Quinn MIN 26.8
OK, Nancy Lieberman's 11 minutes don't really qualify her. Here you see a lot of point guards, which is not surprising. One adjustment many people make is to include assists with possessions used to account for the extra ballhandling done by point guards. I'm not a huge fan of doing so, but this explains wh it makes sense. That being said, I'm surprised how often Moore has turned it over. Her turnover rate was 23.9 percent a year ago, which is much more reasonable for a point guard.

We'll wrap things up by looking at the Storm's turnover rates.

Player              Tm   TO%
Katie Gearlds SEA 9.4
Lauren Jackson SEA 9.6
Sheryl Swoopes SEA 11.8
Swin Cash SEA 15.2
Sue Bird SEA 17.2
Shyra Ely SEA 20.0
Tanisha Wright SEA 21.3
Yolanda Griffith SEA 21.4
Camille Little SEA 22.0
Ashley Robinson SEA 30.4
Aside from Robinson, who rarely handles the ball on offense, the Storm doesn't have anyone who has regular problems with turnovers. Little is another type of player hurt by this analysis - she can't get any credit for setting screens, but can pick up offensive fouls that go in the books as turnovers.

A big part of Wright's improvement this season has been slashing her turnover rate from 27.9 percent last season.

No comments: