Post-Olympic Break Stats Highlighting MVP Candidates
We're back from the Olympic Break and most teams have no more than six games left in the regular season. Yet the numbers still continue to fluctuate, especially with teams affected by injuries, deals and more. Let's take a look.
How do things stand in terms of point differential? Here are the standings using expected full-season wins based on differential.
Team ExpW Team ExpW
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San Antonio 20.1 Connecticut 23.2
Seattle 19.9 Detroit 20.4
Minnesota 19.7 New York 18.2
Los Angeles 18.7 Indiana 17.2
Sacramento 16.7 Chicago 16.0
Houston 16.3 Washington 11.2
Phoenix 15.9 Atlanta 4.6
The Lynx improved their differential in their first game back from the break. If they maintained it and missed the playoffs, only the 2003 Storm and 1998 New York Liberty would have better differentials amongst lottery-bound team. By the way, Phoenix's record overstates how much the Mercury has struggled this year.In the East, Chicago is creeping up on Indiana for the last playoff spot. Surprisingly, the Sky's differential has yet to improve much since the break; it was already much better than Chicago's record.
Alright, to the leaders in Offensive and Defensive Rating on a per-possession basis.
Team ORating Team DRating
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Phoenix 106.2 Indiana 92.6
Minnesota 103.7 San Antonio 93.8
Connecticut 103.4 Seattle 94.6
Detroit 102.0 Los Angeles 94.7
New York 100.3 Connecticut 96.8
Seattle 99.3 Houston 97.5
AVERAGE 98.5 Detroit 97.7
Chicago 98.1 Sacramento 98.0
San Antonio 98.1 AVERAGE 98.5
Sacramento 97.5 Chicago 98.7
Los Angeles 97.5 New York 98.9
Houston 95.3 Washington 99.9
Indiana 93.1 Minnesota 100.0
Atlanta 92.5 Atlanta 106.8
Washington 91.7 Phoenix 108.0
Not a lot of major movement. On the strength of Saturday's defensive slugfest in Los Angeles, the Silver Stars moved up into second place in the league in Defensive Rating ahead of the Storm. Chicago's post-break improvement has come on the defensive end thanks to Sylvia Fowles' shot-blocking presence in the paint.With MVP voting underway at WNBA.com, I'm going to focus on the numbers in the MVP race the rest of the season. Here's a look at the two stats I lend the most credence: Wins Above Replacement Player by my rating system and Net Plus-Minus rating, as tracked by Paul Swanson of the Lynx. I've included the top 10 by WARP as well as a few other players that deserve to be part of the discussion in no small part because of their excellent net plus-minus ratings. Their WARP rank is in parentheses.
Player Tm WARP Net +/- Rk
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Candace Parker LAS 8.2 +12.6 5
Diana Taurasi PHO 7.3 + 8.8 18
Lindsay Whalen CON 7.0 + 0.4 65
Lisa Leslie LAS 6.5 + 4.2 44
Sophia Young SAS 6.3 +15.8 2
Lauren Jackson SEA 5.6 +12.8 4
Candice Dupree CHI 5.5 + 8.3 20
Jia Perkins CHI 5.4 +10.0 12
Becky Hammon SAS 5.4 + 3.6 48
Candice Wiggins MIN 5.1 + 9.1 17
Player Tm WARP Net +/- Rk
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Asjha Jones (11) CON 4.9 +10.2 11
S. Augustus (16) MIN 4.1 +15.5 3
Sue Bird (22) SEA 3.4 +20.3 1
Some thoughts:
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