Stats Entering Final Week

Team stats only today. We'll look at the MVP race tomorrow when I have a chance to update my WARP spreadsheet. We start, as usual, with point differential. Here are the standings using expected full-season wins based on differential.

Team          ExpW    Team          ExpW
------------------    ------------------
San Antonio   21.0    Connecticut   22.6
Seattle       20.1    Detroit       21.5
Los Angeles   19.4    New York      18.9
Minnesota     17.7    Indiana       16.7
Phoenix       17.6    Chicago       15.3
Sacramento    16.6    Washington    10.7
Houston       14.7    Atlanta        4.5

While the West is no longer so tightly bunched in the actual standings, just 4.4 Expected Wins separate sixth-place Sacramento from first-place San Antonio. Minnesota's differential took a major hit in three losses, while Phoenix climbed to nearly catch the Lynx.

In the East, no surprises. Things are what they are at this point.

Alright, to the leaders in Offensive and Defensive Rating on a per-possession basis.

Team          ORating     Team          DRating
---------------------     ---------------------
Phoenix         106.8     San Antonio      93.8
Connecticut     103.1     Indiana          92.6
Detroit         103.1     Los Angeles      94.7
Minnesota       102.4     Seattle          94.6
New York        101.1     Detroit          97.1
Seattle         100.2     Connecticut      97.4
AVERAGE          98.7     Sacramento       97.9
San Antonio      98.5     AVERAGE          98.7
Chicago          97.7     New York         99.0
Los Angeles      97.6     Chicago          99.0
Sacramento       97.3     Houston          99.2
Houston          95.4     Washington      100.6
Indiana          93.6     Minnesota       101.4
Atlanta          92.4     Phoenix         106.8
Washington       91.7     Atlanta         106.8

The common denominator amongst teams moving up in the standings has been strong defense of late, while the teams like Houston and Minnesota that have faded have seen their defensive numbers slip as well. Phoenix actually belongs in the latter group, having gotten out of the cellar defensively for the first time in several weeks. Q took a look at the Mercury's improved D last week.

Detroit has suddenly emerged as the most balanced contender and the only team in the league in the top five in both offense and defense. The Storm, sixth in offense, is just outside that group, as is Connecticut, sixth in defense.