Storm Predicts the Gold-Medal Game

After Friday's Storm practice, I surveyed several players and Head Coach Brian Agler on their picks for the gold-medal game of the Beijing Olympics between the USA (and Sue Bird) and Australia (and Lauren Jackson).

"You think I'm really going to pick Australia?" noted one American Storm player in response. OK, that's fair. Still, I was interested in the responses - and center Kelly Santos, who played against Australia in Beijing, is an unbiased observer. Still, she picked the U.S., and so did everyone else besides Agler, ever the diplomat, who didn't really pick either side but observed that the game would be very close just like the FIBA Diamond Ball warm-up tournament championship assuming Penny Taylor is able to play and play well.

"Obviously, I think the U.S. is going to win it," said Tanisha Wright, who wished good luck to Jackson and former teammate Suzy Batkovic. "No reason they shouldn't be able to finish it out strong."

Camille Little reiterated her hope that Bird gets gold and Jackson silver, saying she expects a good game but the U.S. to pull it out.

As for Santos, she gives the USA's post players the advantage in terms of size, but says that's somewhat offset by the skill of the Opals' posts. Santos thinks that Australia should like to push the tempo. Still, the U.S. will "probably" win.

Yolanda Griffith had the funniest response, saying directly that if the USA loses tomorrow, all the work the team has put in will be for naught. Griffith, a gold medalist in 2000 and 2004 as a member of those U.S. Olympic teams, doesn't see why this squad should lose.

Agler gave the players their choice about how to handle practice, scheduled against the Seattle broadcast of the gold-medal game. They decided to leave the practice at regular time, then watch a replay of the broadcast, having already learned the outcome.

Olympic Stats/Semifinals Preview

Looking ahead to tomorrow's semifinals, here's a look at updated Olympic team stats.

Team             Gr    Diff   ORating Rank   DRating Rank    Pace

United States     B    58.7    133.8    1      76.6    1     73.6
Australia         A    31.7    115.4    2      84.1    2     72.5
China             B     6.3    101.1    4      94.1    5     72.0
Russia            A     6.0    102.6    3      94.4    6     69.5
Spain             B     3.2     96.7    5      92.8    4     73.0
Belarus           A    -5.2     87.2   10      92.4    3     73.8
Czech Republic    B    -9.8     89.5    9      99.5    8     72.9
South Korea       A   -18.3     90.9    8     107.4    9     70.0

Here are the Four Factors numbers on offense and defense for all teams.

Team             Gr    eFG%    OR%   FTM/FGA   TO%

Australia         A   0.474   0.425   0.250   0.139
Belarus           A   0.413   0.339   0.174   0.225
China             B   0.465   0.274   0.239   0.164
Czech Republic    B   0.431   0.303   0.221   0.222
Russia            A   0.486   0.372   0.244   0.211
South Korea       A   0.458   0.170   0.139   0.172
Spain             B   0.485   0.300   0.220   0.219
United States     B   0.607   0.423   0.167   0.127

Team             Gr    eFG%    DR%   FTM/FGA   TO%

Australia         A   0.406   0.768   0.196   0.203
Belarus           A   0.434   0.738   0.225   0.184
China             B   0.429   0.651   0.134   0.174
Czech Republic    B   0.464   0.653   0.242   0.200
Russia            A   0.438   0.732   0.194   0.169
South Korea       A   0.525   0.561   0.242   0.233
Spain             B   0.466   0.650   0.220   0.238
United States     B   0.403   0.744   0.172   0.254

I've also used the Log5 method to predict each team's chances of advancing and finishing in each position.

Team             Final   Gold  Silver  Bronze    4th

United States     99.6   94.0    5.6     0.4     0.0
Australia         94.4    5.9   88.5     5.3     0.3
China              5.6    0.0    5.6    47.8    46.5
Russia             0.4    0.0    0.3    46.5    53.1

The USA remains a heavy favorite, to understate the issue. By these numbers, there's little drama in the semifinals. Subjectively, that's not the case. Let's look at the two matchups.

USA vs. Russia
History is clear: Russia saves its best efforts for matchups against the U.S. Russia has always been unpredictable, but this year that's even more true because of what appear to be legitimate chemistry issues only exacerbated by the addition of Becky Hammon. As I've noted before, however, Russia played much worse in the group round and in the quarterfinals in Brazil, and it did not matter in the semifinals.

From a statistical perspective, Russia's size shows up on the glass, where Australia, the U.S. and Russia (in that order) are the three dominant teams. The USA has rebounded well against smaller teams, but sometimes allows offensive boards to bigger squads like Russia. If Russia wins, presumably 6-8 center Maria Stepanova will have a big game.

A key matchup will pit Hammon against Sue Bird at the point. Hammon has the ability to exploit the USA defense by getting to the basket. Nuria Martinez showed this vulnerability to dribble penetration in keeping Spain in the game for a half. However, the strength of the U.S. defense has been forcing turnovers, and Hammon has committed nearly four a game in these Olympics. (Her assist-to-turnover ratio is 5-to-23; ouch!) If the USA can turn Hammon over, it figures to frustrate both her and her Russian teammates while also offering transition buckets.

Lastly, watch the first quarter closely. In Brazil, Russia jumped out early thanks to hot shooting and the U.S. fell too far behind to catch up. While the last two games (blowing a big halftime lead against Australia, coming back against Spain) have bucked the trend, Russia generally plays much better from ahead. Team chemistry could be a major issue if the USA gets off to a quick start. If Russia is close after one quarter and especially at the half, the U.S. will likely be unable to pull away as it has against lesser competition thus far in the Olympics.

Australia vs. China
This game took on more drama when Penny Taylor sprained her right ankle during Tuesday's quarterfinal win over the Czech Republic. Though Taylor has not had a big Olympics, she's a key threat for the Opals, especially with Lauren Jackson playing at less than 100 percent. The Aussies hope to have Taylor for this game, but it's more likely she will return on Saturday.

The Australian offense has yet to really click for an entire game in Beijing. Taylor's absence would only exacerbate the issue. Belinda Snell will be critical with or without Taylor, but if Taylor is out and the Chinese defense is focused on Jackson (as it figures to be either way), Snell becomes the team's best offensive option. Suzy Batkovic and Laura Summerton also need to offer the Opals scoring down low against a Chinese frontline that is not great defensively.

The offensive glass figures to be a major, major weapon for the Aussies. China is allowing opponents to grab 35.0 percent of their own misses, while the Opals have an Olympics-best 42.5 percent offensive rebounding rate. Add it up and it's entirely possible that missed shots will be a 50-50 proposition for Australia, extending posessions and offering easy looks in the paint.

If China is to win, the Aussies will have to have a very poor shooting night, maybe get into some foul trouble up front and China will have to be hitting, its posts from midrange and perimeter players from long distance. China has the home-court advantage, and if that translates into the refereeing, that could help with getting Australia in foul trouble and keeping China out of it as well as keeping the Aussies off the line, where they like to live. The X-factor is that Tom Maher knows the Opals' core players very well, information that could serve China well. It would still be a massive upset if Australia loses, but don't rule it out.

Olympic Links

About 12 hours away from tomorrow's semifinal games, let's take a trip around the Internet.

- Here's a link that has Lauren Jackson and Aussie team doctor Dr. Scott Burne talking about her upcoming surgery as well as Penny Taylor's sprained ankle. Sounds like Taylor could play against China and will likely be back for Saturday.

- Scott and Angie Engelhardt continue blogging away from Beijing, including their experience at the Beijing Olympic Basketball Gymnasum for the quarterfinal games.

The trend I was watching concerning how demonstrative US fans are at the games
continued. There were many more US fans at this game, but still no where near
the rabid support we saw from the Aussies. A few flags were waving, but no
organized chants. Are we so afraid of being seen as rude or arrogant? Angie and
were yelling like we normally do — at the refs, for some of the players, normal
stuff — and we were getting looks. I’ll keep watching how this plays out as the
games get bigger leading up to the Gold medal match (if the US gets there).

- The Sydney Morning Herald has a story on the close relationship between Jackson and Chinese Head Coach Tom Maher, who was the coach of the Opals in 2000 when they won silver in Sydney.

Says Maher: "Every generation we see a great player, a truly world-class basketball player come along. It was Robyn Maher and Michele Timms and before that it was, say, Jenny Cheesman, and people like that. But I don't see Lauren in the same category as that, because I think she's a once-in-a-lifetime player."

- The Boston Globe takes a look at the close friendship of Sue Bird and Diana Taurasi.

- Adam Hirshfield of WNBA.com has a good take on the USA looking to avenge its loss to Russia in the semifinals of the 2006 FIBA World Championships. USABasketball.com scouts Hammon and company.

- According to USAToday's blog, the U.S. Women's teams in basketball, soccer and volleyball got together to hang out at their practices, meet each other and take a three-team photo. Kara Lawson related that she and Bird played soccer against each other at ages 10 and 11. Check out video at the U.S. National Soccer blog.

Olympics Stats Through Group Play

As we head to the quarterfinals (mere hours away), let's take a last look at the numbers from group play.

Team            Gr    Diff   ORating Rank   DRating Rank    Pace

United States     B    58.2    132.3    1      75.1    1     73.9
Australia         A    28.9    115.8    2      88.5    3     72.6
Spain             B     8.9     96.8    5      87.0    2     74.1
China             B     3.3     98.9    3      95.1    6     72.6
Russia            A     1.7     98.2    4      94.0    5     69.9
Belarus           A    -2.1     86.9   11      88.7    4     74.7
Czech Republic    B    -2.7     95.0    6      96.9    7     73.2
Brazil            A    -4.8     92.4    8      98.7    8     70.6
South Korea       A    -9.5     92.2    9     100.5    9     69.5
Latvia            A   -15.0     94.4    7     110.1   11     70.5
New Zealand       B   -28.0     87.0   10     114.9   12     73.6
Mali              B   -39.2     67.5   12     108.0   10     75.0

The USA's amazing differential really never came down over the course of group play. It's interesting to note that while the U.S. was dominant on defense, its offense was much further ahead of the pack. The Opals and the Americans were the only two teams to average a point per possessions, and the USA blew by that mark with ease. Australia's offense continues to lag compared to 2004 and 2006, but the Aussies have defended well. Look out for Spain as a darkhorse.

Here are the Four Factors numbers on offense and defense for all teams.

Team             Gr    eFG%    OR%   FTM/FGA   TO%

Australia         A   0.484   0.417   0.246   0.141
Belarus           A   0.400   0.315   0.197   0.210
Brazil            A   0.441   0.277   0.203   0.194
China             B   0.453   0.293   0.220   0.167
Czech Republic    B   0.463   0.319   0.235   0.224
Latvia            A   0.474   0.284   0.225   0.221
Mali              B   0.344   0.347   0.203   0.290
New Zealand       B   0.414   0.299   0.224   0.222
Russia            A   0.470   0.364   0.249   0.222
South Korea       A   0.462   0.169   0.151   0.172
Spain             B   0.488   0.308   0.209   0.223
United States     B   0.610   0.406   0.163   0.135

Note that Spain has shot the ball better than anyone else besides the U.S.

Team             Gr    eFG%    DR%   FTM/FGA   TO%

Australia        A       0.433   0.771   0.205   0.200
Belarus          A       0.417   0.722   0.203   0.190
Brazil           A       0.447   0.690   0.213   0.174
China            B       0.420   0.673   0.149   0.149
Czech Republic   B       0.473   0.682   0.236   0.215
Latvia           A       0.495   0.641   0.219   0.165
Mali             B       0.503   0.660   0.176   0.169
New Zealand      B       0.564   0.627   0.288   0.209
Russia           A       0.434   0.730   0.179   0.163
South Korea      A       0.507   0.575   0.258   0.265
Spain            B       0.447   0.661   0.220   0.254
United States    B       0.395   0.727   0.192   0.270

Australia crushed Russia on the offensive glass and dropped Russia way back to the pack in terms of defensive rebounding, just ahead of the USA.

Let's close out by using the Log5 method to predict each team's chances of advancing and winning it all.

Team             Semi   Final   Champ

United States    99.9    99.5    95.9
Australia        96.9    92.0     4.0
China            65.6     5.2     0.0
Belarus          34.4     1.6     0.0
Czech Republic    3.1     1.2     0.0
Spain            70.5     0.4     0.0
Russia           29.5     0.1     0.0
South Korea       0.1     0.0     0.0

So, as you can see, the USA is something of a favorite. Now, two things throw off these numbers. They're based on each team's Pythagorean winning percentage (based on points scored and allowed) and the U.S. has been so, so dominant as to show up as virtually unbeatable. Subjectively, while the U.S. women are good, they aren't that good. Second, if Russia really has been playing possum, the numbers cannot pick up on that, giving Spain an edge that again doesn't match our subjective assessment.

What I do agree with is showing China as a favorite over Belarus to advance to the semis. The numbers do also show, even if it's exaggerated, how much Spain was hurt by finishing third to China in Group B. The Spanish would have a reasonable 10.2 percent chance of reaching the final had they finished second; as it is, it will be extremely difficult to get past both Russia and the U.S.

Blogging From Beijing

Scott and Angie Engelhardt, the co-founders of StormFans.org, have traveled to Beijing to take in the women's basketball competition, other games in the Olympics and see China. You can follow their journey in their blog, Scorpions on a Stick (as already eaten by Scott).

Yesterday (today?) was their first day at the Beijing Olympic Basketball Gymnasium, and Scott does a great job of offering the color of what it's like to be inside the arena. Here from the China-Czech Republic matchup:

Inside, it was a sea of red. When the Chinese national anthem was played, the whole arena sang, some of the Chinese around us sang the song with a lot of force and emotion. This is a huge deal for them. Then Yao Ming showed up, as I described earlier, and the crowd went crazy.

They had one main cheer they did. It was a call and answer. One person would start and say the call phrase and the crowd would answer “Cha Yo.” I’m not sure what it meant, but it was going on all game long, sometimes in small groups and sometimes with the whole arena in unison. I felt a little sorry for the Czech players who had to face that. It was impressive and had to be daunting.

Yeah, I'm taking the hosts over Belarus to advance to the semis. Scott's post is very detailed and more than worth a look.

Olympic Numbers Through Four Games

Back with another check of the numbers. First, a note on what to look for tonight/tomorrow as group play wraps up. Obviously, first place in Group A is on the line when Australia faces Russia at 8:15 p.m. Pacific. I'll be watching on NBC's webcast. I half suspect Russia won't bring its A game, not caring about group positioning and preferring to play the U.S. in the semifinals anyway.

South Korea and Latvia follow them with a spot in the medal rounds on the line. Belarus has beaten both teams and will finish third in Group A even with a loss to Brazil.

In Group B, the four teams are set, but after the U.S. the order is a mess. If China beats the Czech Republic, the host country finishes second with Spain third and the Czech Republic fourth barring a wildly improbable Mali upset over Spain.

If the Czech Republic wins that game, again assuming Spain takes care of business, we have a three-way tie that can't be resolved via head-to-head results. As best I can tell, that would be determined by point average (a misleading term which really would better be called "point ratio") from head-to-head games.

Spain is in good shape, having beaten the Czech Republic by 19 points. Their point average is 1.131. To reach that, the Czechs would have to win by about double, or 38 points(bad math) about 34 points. To finish ahead of China, the Czech Republic would have to win by about 11 points or more.

Again, this is huge because the second-place team in Group B gets Belarus and a relatively clear path to the semifinals, while the third-place team has to face the loser of Australia-Russia and fourth place will play the winner of that game.

Anyways, here are the numbers.

Team            Gr    Diff   ORating Rank   DRating Rank    Pace
United States     B    59.9    131.3    1      72.8    1     74.7
Australia         A    28.9    117.9    2      90.2    3     73.6
Russia            A     9.3    102.3    3      90.8    4     70.2
Belarus           A     2.3     90.4    9      87.8    2     75.1
Czech Republic    B     2.0     96.1    4      93.5    5     73.8
Spain             B     0.3     96.0    5      95.2    6     72.6
China             B    -1.4     96.0    5      96.2    7     73.1
Brazil            A   -11.4     92.3    7     105.3    9     69.9
South Korea       A   -13.1     87.8   10      99.6    8     70.7
Latvia            A   -17.0     92.2    8     109.6   10     72.0
New Zealand       B   -22.5     87.5   11     109.8   11     74.4
Mali              B   -39.1     70.2   12     110.3   12     73.6

The USA's numbers remain impeccable, though I think Spain's first-half challenge showed where the team could have some difficulty. When Sue Bird had a tough time with Nuria Martinez's quickness, the U.S. struggled to fill in for her. Kara Lawson was too prone to turnovers, while Cappie Pondexter isn't a true point guard. Having either another true point like Lindsay Whalen or a complementary player like Loree Moore available would have given Anne Donovan more options.

Offensive Four Factors:

Team             Gr    eFG%    OR%   FTM/FGA   TO%
Australia         A   0.509   0.401   0.242   0.143
Belarus           A   0.419   0.307   0.238   0.218
Brazil            A   0.447   0.288   0.209   0.208
China             B   0.437   0.318   0.195   0.173
Czech Republic    B   0.491   0.307   0.232   0.241
Latvia            A   0.482   0.227   0.223   0.227
Mali              B   0.348   0.367   0.203   0.278
New Zealand       B   0.398   0.317   0.249   0.213
Russia            A   0.500   0.398   0.246   0.231
South Korea       A   0.442   0.157   0.141   0.171
Spain             B   0.485   0.295   0.223   0.225
United States     B   0.606   0.423   0.164   0.138

Australia has not shot the ball particularly well, but the Opals' offense is still second only to the U.S. because the Aussies are doing everything else well on offense.

And defense:

Team               eFG%    DR%   FTM/FGA   TO%
Australia         0.452   0.776   0.191   0.204
Belarus           0.417   0.712   0.209   0.203
Brazil            0.480   0.701   0.259   0.173
China             0.433   0.680   0.126   0.147
Czech Republic    0.461   0.651   0.213   0.231
Latvia            0.483   0.616   0.223   0.162
Mali              0.504   0.662   0.180   0.157
New Zealand       0.545   0.617   0.325   0.230
Russia            0.447   0.794   0.154   0.171
South Korea       0.525   0.595   0.266   0.281
Spain             0.475   0.641   0.225   0.232
United States     0.372   0.714   0.212   0.272

Yeah, I'd say the U.S. commitment to defense has paid off so far.

Olympics Team Stats

With the first three games of group play in the book, I've got my spreadsheet updated to take a look at advanced possession-based stats for all 12 Olympic teams. They're sorted below by differential per 100 possessions.

Team            Gr    Diff   ORating Rank   DRating Rank    Pace

United States     B    62.2    133.4    1      70.9    1     75.6
Australia         A    27.9    113.0    2      86.3    3     74.2
Spain             B    17.9    101.5    3      85.0    2     72.7
Russia            A     7.5    100.5    4      90.2    4     70.7
Belarus           A    -1.3     91.0    8      92.7    5     76.0
Brazil            A   -10.4     92.2    7     104.6    9     70.3
China             B   -11.2     95.2    5     104.7   11     74.2
Czech Republic    B   -11.2     86.4   11      97.8    6     74.4
Latvia            A   -12.0     88.9   10     101.7    7     72.1
South Korea       A   -12.8     93.0    6     103.2    8     70.3
New Zealand       B   -16.0     89.7    9     104.6    9     75.1
Mali              B   -41.8     70.7   12     114.0   12     74.9

The U.S. ... wow. Just wow. I'm not sure I've ever seen a number that big in any context. Spain figures to present a greater challenge on Friday, but my expectation was that China was the second-best team in Group B - and China will finish second with a win over the Czech Republic - and the USA ran the Chinese out of the building on Monday. So ... yeah.

The Opals are about where you'd expect on defense. They haven't scored as efficiently as is typical, largely because Lauren Jackson and Penny Taylor haven't lived up to their own lofty standards. I don't think that's much of a concern.

Since losing to China, Spain has played very well. The Spanish women will see their rating go way down after playing the USA tomorrow, however. It's possible that if the U.S. wins in a rout we could have only three teams with positive differentials.

A couple of decent teams - Brazil likely to be one of them - will be left home from Group A, which is much more balanced than the stratified Group B.

Here are the Four Factors numbers on offense and defense for all teams.

                            OFFENSE                           DEFENSE
Team             Gr    eFG%    OR%   FTM/FGA   TO%       eFG%    DR%   FTM/FGA   TO%

Australia         A   0.516   0.361   0.293   0.173     0.411   0.752   0.172   0.184
Belarus           A   0.399   0.287   0.227   0.177     0.442   0.683   0.233   0.207
Brazil            A   0.443   0.330   0.228   0.220     0.473   0.743   0.295   0.165
China             B   0.434   0.327   0.237   0.187     0.471   0.713   0.122   0.119
Czech Republic    B   0.449   0.291   0.185   0.249     0.481   0.651   0.230   0.219
Latvia            A   0.446   0.257   0.211   0.213     0.478   0.667   0.268   0.201
Mali              B   0.365   0.351   0.228   0.295     0.525   0.645   0.214   0.166
New Zealand       B   0.396   0.306   0.277   0.195     0.520   0.613   0.307   0.235
Russia            A   0.500   0.389   0.280   0.244     0.444   0.780   0.156   0.172
South Korea       A   0.476   0.136   0.141   0.166     0.532   0.596   0.260   0.258
Spain             B   0.514   0.294   0.204   0.212     0.419   0.700   0.263   0.244
United States     B   0.606   0.378   0.174   0.117     0.368   0.718   0.190   0.275

Q noted that the U.S. women struggled on the glass in the big win over Mali, but over the course of the tournament it has not been a big problem. Russia's giant frontline will test the USA on the glass. Remarkably, Russia and the Czech Republic, two good, veteran teams, have turned the ball over more frequently than anyone besides lowly Mali.

Beijing Play Underway

Three games into the 2008 Olympics, the big winner is fans (at least in the U.S.) who are able to watch these games online. Although the lack of commentary requires a bit of an adjustment, the quality is excellent. You can also catch archives of the games at NBCOlympics.com.

The big result so far is China just knocking off Spain by a 77-74 final, an outcome that seems to confirm the notion that the hosts might be the best of the teams outside the big three (Australia, Russia, U.S.). China's defense really seemed to frustrate Spanish star Amaya Valdemoro, and a big night from 18-year-old forward Alba Torrens (20 points and a spot on my radar) wasn't enough to make up for it.

Belarus kept things reasonably close in the second half, but predictably Australia cruised in the tournament opener. In between, we saw an important game between Mali and New Zealand that could end up determining fifth and sixth place in Group B. Despite a commendable effort from the African champs, the Tall Ferns held on for the 76-72 win.

Olympics Links and More

Hard to believe, but we're seven and a half hours away from the start of women's basketball in the 2008 Olympics. Australia tips things off against Belarus at 6:00 p.m. Pacific, a game that should theoretically be available in the U.S. via Webcast on NBCOlympics.com. You might be able to watch on NBC's special basketball channel, but the Sports Northwest Magazine blog reported earlier this week that Comcast will not carry the channel locally.

The USA plays its first game against the Czech Republic tomorrow morning at 5:00 a.m. with coverage on the USA Network, but what's not clear is whether that coverage will be live or not. On a Saturday morning, TiVo sounds like the way to go.

Alright, how about some links. First off, I hope you've been following WNBA.com as it covers the Olympics from all angles. My favorite so far has been a joint interview with Storm star Lauren Jackson and former Storm guard Tully Bevilaqua, the two active WNBA players on the Australian Defence Force Opals.

Adam Hirshfield got some help from NBC analyst and two-time gold medalist Teresa Edwards in breaking down all the competition in Beijing.

There's also a nice photo gallery from Thursday's U.S. practice. Meanwhile, USA Basketball offers quotes from Thursday's media availability and a scouting report of the Czech Republic.

Q over at Rethinking Basketball offers his take on the U.S. Olympic Team, including an analysis of how the team is doing in terms of building on-court chemistry on the fly.

I'm of the opinion that the talk by the Aussies of physical U.S. play in the finale of the Diamond Ball Tournament has been blown way out of proportion by a media eager for any hint of scandal, but if you're into that sort of thing I'd say The Australian - complete with a "Trash Talk" graphic featuring LJ and Lisa Leslie - is the most dramatic example.

As for Storm center Kelly Santos, here's a loose translation of an AP story on Brazil and its opening game against South Korea.

"I'm going to contribute with my experience because this is a very young team," Santos said (roughly). "We have to continue working hard and I believe that we can advance to the quarterfinals."

Lastly, a little WNBA news that affects the Storm and the Western Conference playoff race. Sacramento forward Rebekkah Brunson, who had been playing with torn cartilage, had surgery on her right knee Wednesday. If Brunson is able to get back in the minimum four-week timeframe, she would miss two games, which still could make it slightly more difficult for the Monarchs as they battle for one of the last two playoff spots in the West. At worst, Brunson could miss the remainder of the regular season. Though unheralded Crystal Kelly should be able to step up, Sacramento's depth up front will take a hit in Brunson's absence. There is an outside chance DeMya Walker could return to the lineup after the break.

USA Wins Thriller, Diamond Ball

If the Olympic gold-medal game is anything like this morning's Australia-U.S. clash for gold in the FIBA Diamond Ball Tournament, we are in for a real treat. Even in what was technically an exhibition game, both teams played to win and the outcome came down to the final minutes as the U.S. women held on for a hard-fought 71-67 victory over the Australian Defence Force Opals to win the Diamond Ball Tournament. Here's FIBA.com's recap as well as one from USABasketball.com.

The USA led in the early going, but the game was tight throughout the second half. With 4:27 to play, two Laura Summerton free throws made it a two-point game at 67-65. From there, the U.S. women clamped down on defense, allowing just one basket over seven possessions the rest of the game. That score by Penny Taylor answered a Lisa Leslie on the bucket end to keep it a two-point game, but Tina Thompson's midrange score made it a two-possession game with 1:09 to play. On the subsequent possession, the U.S. forced the Opals into a shot-clock violation after an errant attempt from downtown by Kristi Harrower. Harrower had the ball stolen with 10 seconds left and that was the game as the U.S. women dribbled out the clock.

"The top level athlete is so competitive, and they have so much pride, that it wouldn’t matter if they were playing for marbles," USA Head Coach Anne Donovan said after the game. "I think they’d go just as hard. This was great to see, and it was great preparation. Absolutely the best preparation we could have going into next week."

Storm point guard Sue Bird played 30 minutes for the U.S., using a legitimate rotation. Bird scored 11 points on 5-of-6 shooting and had only one turnover in that span. The stingy international scorekeeping on assists has limited Bird's numbers in this tournament (she had one today), but Bird has done a terrific job of taking care of the basketball and added two steals. The USA also got strong production from the L.A. Sparks duo of Lisa Leslie (14 points, 10 rebounds) and Candace Parker (12 and eight).

The big thing for the U.S. was defense, as the team held an extremely potent Opals attack to 35.8 percent from the field and forced 18 turnovers. While Taylor scored 19 points and the Storm's Lauren Jackson had 16 on 6-of-13 shooting with eight boards, the rest of the Aussie lineup struggled. Suzy Batkovic, Kristi Harrower and Belinda Snell combined to miss 22 of their 27 shot attempts. The defense has to be a very encouraging sign for Donovan and the U.S.; the gameplan was very similar to how the USA won gold in Athens, something they were unable to repeat in the 2006 World Championships.

"Tonight was a tough one," Bird said. "Australia is a very very good team and we were fortunate to pull it out. We've only had five, six practices together, this was our third game as a unit and we've gotten better every game. That's a good sign. We still have eight more to go but as long as we continue to get better, get after it out there and work towards our talent, I think we'll be okay."

With China claiming Bronze and Russia rallying to finish fifth, the Diamond Ball Tournament wrapped up with awards. Jackson was named Tournament MVP and was joined on the All-Touranment team by Bird as well as Candace Parker and Diana Taurasi from the U.S. and China's Sui Feifei.

Australia and U.S. Set to Clash

courtesy USA Basketball

The finale of the Diamond Ball Tournament in preparation for the Olympics will feature a highly-anticipated matchup between the defending Olympic champions (the U.S.) and the reigning World Champions (Australia) after both teams went 2-0 in their contests against teams from their group.

The Diamond Ball Tournament is a great tune-up for the Olympics because it features not only the U.S. and Australia but also 2006 World Championship silver medalist Russia and emerging China, which figures to be tough in the Olympics thanks in no small part to home-court advantage.

The U.S. and the Australia Defence Force Opals each had one matchup against the other competitors and a second game against lesser competition.

Australia drew China in its opener and led by as many as 22 points en route to an 84-70 victory. Lauren Jackson, returning after missing an exhibition against Brazil with a minor ankle injury, led the Opals with 21 points on 7-of-10 shooting, grabbing four rebounds. Suzy Batkovic and Penny Taylor added 17 apiece for the strong Aussie offense.

Game two for the Opals saw Mali, ranked #31 in the current FIBA rankings, hang right with Australia for a quarter. It was 21-19 Opals at the end of the first period before Australia outscored the outmatched opposition 30-5 in the second quarter. Thereafter, the Opals cruised to a 112-43 victory. Nine players scored at least eight points for Australia, which shot 53.2 percent and had just six turnovers all game. Jackson led the way with 24 points on 9-of-13 shooting, adding a pair of blocks and steals. Ho hum.

In their opener, the Americans faced Latvia and a red-hot Aneta Jekabsone-Zogota. She scored 24 points as Latvia hung tough throughout the game before the U.S. women ultimately prevailed 84-74. It was a balanced scoring attack for the USA, which got double-figure point production from five players, including the Storm's Sue Bird. In 19 minutes, Bird scored 11 points, dished out a pair of assists and had two steals. Bird had three three-pointers, which was key as the U.S. struggled from downtown, shooting 33.3 percent (4-of-12).

Early this morning Seattle time, the U.S. women squared off with Russia, the team that ended their 50-game winning streak in major international play during the 2006 World Championships. It was also the first matchup for new Russian point guard Becky Hammon against her home country. Surprisingly, it proved a lopsided win for the USA, which led 43-19 at the half and finished with a 35-point victory, 93-58.

Bird had two points and two assists in the game, deferring to backcourt-mate Diana Taurasi, who scored a game-high 21 points. Really, the U.S. won with defense, limiting Russia to 37.1 percent shooting and forcing 26 turnovers - six by Hammon alone. She scored 10 points on 4-of-10 shooting and had only one assist, though she did come up with three steals.

I'm always wary of reading too much into any non-medal matchup with Russia, which has a history of saving its best performances. That goes double for a game that is merely an exhibition contest. However, a 35-point margin of victory is certainly a surprise, and Russian Head Coach Igor Grudin sounded displeased with his team afterwards.

"This game looks like we are not ready," he said. "We have a little bit of time to do something. We will work for that."

As the two undefeated teams on top of their respective three-team groups, the U.S. and Australia face in the championship game of the tournament tomorrow. If I'm understanding the conversion correctly, that game will take place at 4:30 a.m. Pacific time.

USA's Place Entering Olympics?

I agonized over today's column evaluating the U.S. women going into the Beijing Olympics. I first started looking at some of the numbers comparing the USA's performance in the 2006 World Championships to Australia and to the U.S. in the 2004 Athens Olympics last fall, but chose not to use them in my "state of the national team" story. Now that there's so much talk of "what went wrong" for the USA in Brazil and the challenges facing the team going into Beijing, I figured it might be the right time to revisit the numbers.

I've got to say, even I'm not totally sold. One thing I didn't fit into the column was that, as well as the U.S. defended overall in Brazil, its defense did break down against Russia in a way that didn't happen in the semifinals and finals in Athens, when strong defense carried a mediocre U.S. offense against Russia and Australia. Still, I think that offense was more of an issue in that game, and who's to say how things are different if Oxana Rakhmatulina - 4-of-22 from three-point range the rest of the tournament - doesn't hit three triples. That's the kind of thing that can happen in a one-and-done format that isn't necessarily predictive going forward.

So, what do you think? Are the numbers compelling? Is the U.S. the clear favorite? I'm curious what readers think.

LJ Sits, Opals Cruise

The Australian Defence Force Opals didn't need Storm All-Star Lauren Jackson Wednesday as they swept a two-game exhibition series with Brazil, winning 85-62 in Sydney. The Opals demonstrated their balanced scoring attack, with six players scoring at least eight points led by 17 from former Storm center Suzy Batkovic and 13 by Belinda Snell. Australia scored 51 points after halftime and shot 52 percent from the field for the game. Here's a recap and the box score for the game.

Brazil played without Storm center Kelly Santos, who will join the team in time for the Olympics. Santos' role up front became more important when Brazil got the bad news that veteran center Erika DeSouza will miss the Olympics. DeSouza, who broke her leg in May, returned to play for the Atlanta Dream Sunday against New York. However, she apparently was reinjured in that game and was replaced on Brazil's roster yesterday.

Jackson sat out after feeling some soreness in her right ankle. Examination revealed an anterior impingement, so Australia played it safe and rested her.

''It's a disappointment to not be on the court, but that's the nature of the game, injuries,'' Jackson told the Canberra Times. ''But I will be back for the Olympics.''

Next up for Australia, like the United States, is the FIBA Diamond Ball for Women Tournament in Haining. Both teams will play their first Diamond Ball game on Sunday. The brief six-team tournament, which also includes China, Latvia, Mali and Russia, wraps up Tuesday. Olympic play starts the following Saturday.

Olympic Preparation Begins in Earnest

On day one of the Olympic break, national teams are gearing up for the competition, which is a week and a half away (Aug. 9 is the first day of women's basketball in the Olympics).

In Wollongong, the host Australian Defence Force Opals defeated Brazil 99-62 in the first of two friendly matches. Here's the box score and a recap courtesy Basketball Australia. Lauren Jackson had 19 points, seven rebounds and three steals for the Opals. Ho hum. Penny Taylor added 17 and Belinda Snell scored 16. Brazil is playing without Storm center Kelly Santos; she said in June she would join her team in Australia for the teammate, so she might be in the lineup Wednesday when the teams play in Sydney, but I didn't get a chance to check with her on that yesterday.

As for Storm guard Sue Bird, she had an early-morning flight to Palo Alto for practice with the U.S. Olympic Team at Stanford University. The U.S. will practice at Stanford through Thursday before heading to Haining, China for the 2008 FIBA Diamond Ball Tournament. Here's the schedule. Jayda Evans is blogging from the U.S. practices.

LJ Officially an Olympian

On Thursday, Basketball Australia announced the roster for the Opals for next month's Beijing Olympics. And, in news that comes as something less than a surprise, Lauren Jackson headlines that roster.

More noteworthy is that former Storm guard Tully Bevilaqua was chosen for the roster despite choosing to play with the Indiana Fever this season. In 2004, Bevilaqua's decision to play for the Storm instead of staying in Australia played a role in costing her an Olympic bid. This time around, a roster spot was likely but no sure thing.

"I'm just playing it as 50-50," Bevilaqua said last month. "I'm supposed to find out towards the end of this month whether I am included or not. I'm trying not to think about it because I don't want it to affect how I play here. I'm just trying to stay loose, not worry about things. That's how I'm playing at the moment. When the time comes to get the call, hopefully it will be good."

Former Storm center Suzy Batkovic is also on the roster after not taking part in the 2006 FIBA World Championships, won by Australia.

Locally, the bigger news has been Storm forward Swin Cash receiving word from USA Basketball that she will not fill one of the last thee spots on the U.S. roster for Beijing, which have yet to be announced.

When Storm rookie Kristen O'Neill made her WNBA debut on Thursday, her college coach June Daugherty was in the KeyArena crowd. Daugherty, now coaching Washington State University, chatted with Dick Fain and Adia Barnes on the 1150 AM KKNW broadcast on Thursday. If you were there yourself or just missed it, here's the audio from that interview.