Olympics Stats Through Group Play

As we head to the quarterfinals (mere hours away), let's take a last look at the numbers from group play.

Team            Gr    Diff   ORating Rank   DRating Rank    Pace

United States     B    58.2    132.3    1      75.1    1     73.9
Australia         A    28.9    115.8    2      88.5    3     72.6
Spain             B     8.9     96.8    5      87.0    2     74.1
China             B     3.3     98.9    3      95.1    6     72.6
Russia            A     1.7     98.2    4      94.0    5     69.9
Belarus           A    -2.1     86.9   11      88.7    4     74.7
Czech Republic    B    -2.7     95.0    6      96.9    7     73.2
Brazil            A    -4.8     92.4    8      98.7    8     70.6
South Korea       A    -9.5     92.2    9     100.5    9     69.5
Latvia            A   -15.0     94.4    7     110.1   11     70.5
New Zealand       B   -28.0     87.0   10     114.9   12     73.6
Mali              B   -39.2     67.5   12     108.0   10     75.0

The USA's amazing differential really never came down over the course of group play. It's interesting to note that while the U.S. was dominant on defense, its offense was much further ahead of the pack. The Opals and the Americans were the only two teams to average a point per possessions, and the USA blew by that mark with ease. Australia's offense continues to lag compared to 2004 and 2006, but the Aussies have defended well. Look out for Spain as a darkhorse.

Here are the Four Factors numbers on offense and defense for all teams.

Team             Gr    eFG%    OR%   FTM/FGA   TO%

Australia         A   0.484   0.417   0.246   0.141
Belarus           A   0.400   0.315   0.197   0.210
Brazil            A   0.441   0.277   0.203   0.194
China             B   0.453   0.293   0.220   0.167
Czech Republic    B   0.463   0.319   0.235   0.224
Latvia            A   0.474   0.284   0.225   0.221
Mali              B   0.344   0.347   0.203   0.290
New Zealand       B   0.414   0.299   0.224   0.222
Russia            A   0.470   0.364   0.249   0.222
South Korea       A   0.462   0.169   0.151   0.172
Spain             B   0.488   0.308   0.209   0.223
United States     B   0.610   0.406   0.163   0.135

Note that Spain has shot the ball better than anyone else besides the U.S.

Team             Gr    eFG%    DR%   FTM/FGA   TO%

Australia        A       0.433   0.771   0.205   0.200
Belarus          A       0.417   0.722   0.203   0.190
Brazil           A       0.447   0.690   0.213   0.174
China            B       0.420   0.673   0.149   0.149
Czech Republic   B       0.473   0.682   0.236   0.215
Latvia           A       0.495   0.641   0.219   0.165
Mali             B       0.503   0.660   0.176   0.169
New Zealand      B       0.564   0.627   0.288   0.209
Russia           A       0.434   0.730   0.179   0.163
South Korea      A       0.507   0.575   0.258   0.265
Spain            B       0.447   0.661   0.220   0.254
United States    B       0.395   0.727   0.192   0.270

Australia crushed Russia on the offensive glass and dropped Russia way back to the pack in terms of defensive rebounding, just ahead of the USA.

Let's close out by using the Log5 method to predict each team's chances of advancing and winning it all.

Team             Semi   Final   Champ

United States    99.9    99.5    95.9
Australia        96.9    92.0     4.0
China            65.6     5.2     0.0
Belarus          34.4     1.6     0.0
Czech Republic    3.1     1.2     0.0
Spain            70.5     0.4     0.0
Russia           29.5     0.1     0.0
South Korea       0.1     0.0     0.0

So, as you can see, the USA is something of a favorite. Now, two things throw off these numbers. They're based on each team's Pythagorean winning percentage (based on points scored and allowed) and the U.S. has been so, so dominant as to show up as virtually unbeatable. Subjectively, while the U.S. women are good, they aren't that good. Second, if Russia really has been playing possum, the numbers cannot pick up on that, giving Spain an edge that again doesn't match our subjective assessment.

What I do agree with is showing China as a favorite over Belarus to advance to the semis. The numbers do also show, even if it's exaggerated, how much Spain was hurt by finishing third to China in Group B. The Spanish would have a reasonable 10.2 percent chance of reaching the final had they finished second; as it is, it will be extremely difficult to get past both Russia and the U.S.