Olympic Numbers Through Four Games

Back with another check of the numbers. First, a note on what to look for tonight/tomorrow as group play wraps up. Obviously, first place in Group A is on the line when Australia faces Russia at 8:15 p.m. Pacific. I'll be watching on NBC's webcast. I half suspect Russia won't bring its A game, not caring about group positioning and preferring to play the U.S. in the semifinals anyway.

South Korea and Latvia follow them with a spot in the medal rounds on the line. Belarus has beaten both teams and will finish third in Group A even with a loss to Brazil.

In Group B, the four teams are set, but after the U.S. the order is a mess. If China beats the Czech Republic, the host country finishes second with Spain third and the Czech Republic fourth barring a wildly improbable Mali upset over Spain.

If the Czech Republic wins that game, again assuming Spain takes care of business, we have a three-way tie that can't be resolved via head-to-head results. As best I can tell, that would be determined by point average (a misleading term which really would better be called "point ratio") from head-to-head games.

Spain is in good shape, having beaten the Czech Republic by 19 points. Their point average is 1.131. To reach that, the Czechs would have to win by about double, or 38 points(bad math) about 34 points. To finish ahead of China, the Czech Republic would have to win by about 11 points or more.

Again, this is huge because the second-place team in Group B gets Belarus and a relatively clear path to the semifinals, while the third-place team has to face the loser of Australia-Russia and fourth place will play the winner of that game.

Anyways, here are the numbers.

Team            Gr    Diff   ORating Rank   DRating Rank    Pace
United States     B    59.9    131.3    1      72.8    1     74.7
Australia         A    28.9    117.9    2      90.2    3     73.6
Russia            A     9.3    102.3    3      90.8    4     70.2
Belarus           A     2.3     90.4    9      87.8    2     75.1
Czech Republic    B     2.0     96.1    4      93.5    5     73.8
Spain             B     0.3     96.0    5      95.2    6     72.6
China             B    -1.4     96.0    5      96.2    7     73.1
Brazil            A   -11.4     92.3    7     105.3    9     69.9
South Korea       A   -13.1     87.8   10      99.6    8     70.7
Latvia            A   -17.0     92.2    8     109.6   10     72.0
New Zealand       B   -22.5     87.5   11     109.8   11     74.4
Mali              B   -39.1     70.2   12     110.3   12     73.6

The USA's numbers remain impeccable, though I think Spain's first-half challenge showed where the team could have some difficulty. When Sue Bird had a tough time with Nuria Martinez's quickness, the U.S. struggled to fill in for her. Kara Lawson was too prone to turnovers, while Cappie Pondexter isn't a true point guard. Having either another true point like Lindsay Whalen or a complementary player like Loree Moore available would have given Anne Donovan more options.

Offensive Four Factors:

Team             Gr    eFG%    OR%   FTM/FGA   TO%
Australia         A   0.509   0.401   0.242   0.143
Belarus           A   0.419   0.307   0.238   0.218
Brazil            A   0.447   0.288   0.209   0.208
China             B   0.437   0.318   0.195   0.173
Czech Republic    B   0.491   0.307   0.232   0.241
Latvia            A   0.482   0.227   0.223   0.227
Mali              B   0.348   0.367   0.203   0.278
New Zealand       B   0.398   0.317   0.249   0.213
Russia            A   0.500   0.398   0.246   0.231
South Korea       A   0.442   0.157   0.141   0.171
Spain             B   0.485   0.295   0.223   0.225
United States     B   0.606   0.423   0.164   0.138

Australia has not shot the ball particularly well, but the Opals' offense is still second only to the U.S. because the Aussies are doing everything else well on offense.

And defense:

Team               eFG%    DR%   FTM/FGA   TO%
Australia         0.452   0.776   0.191   0.204
Belarus           0.417   0.712   0.209   0.203
Brazil            0.480   0.701   0.259   0.173
China             0.433   0.680   0.126   0.147
Czech Republic    0.461   0.651   0.213   0.231
Latvia            0.483   0.616   0.223   0.162
Mali              0.504   0.662   0.180   0.157
New Zealand       0.545   0.617   0.325   0.230
Russia            0.447   0.794   0.154   0.171
South Korea       0.525   0.595   0.266   0.281
Spain             0.475   0.641   0.225   0.232
United States     0.372   0.714   0.212   0.272

Yeah, I'd say the U.S. commitment to defense has paid off so far.