WNBA Numbers Update

Two full weeks into the 2008 WNBA season, the advanced statistics have settled down ... slightly. With the Minnesota Lynx as the league's last undefeated team at 4-0, there are still some surprises.

Let's look first at the per-possession numbers on offense and defense.

Team          ORating     Team          DRating
---------------------     ---------------------
Minnesota       111.6     Indiana          81.6
Connecticut     104.2     Los Angeles      86.2
Detroit         100.0     Detroit          91.3
Phoenix         100.0     Connecticut      92.3
Seattle          99.5     Seattle          93.5
Chicago          98.7     AVERAGE          96.5
AVERAGE          96.5     Minnesota        96.6
Los Angeles      96.4     Washington       97.4
San Antonio      96.0     Sacramento       98.3
New York         92.9     New York         98.8
Sacramento       91.8     Chicago          99.4
Washington       90.2     San Antonio      99.5
Houston          89.9     Houston         102.0
Indiana          89.9     Phoenix         108.9
Atlanta          88.8     Atlanta         115.0

Two teams in the league are playing games unlike anyone else at one end of the floor. The Minnesota Lynx are in a league of their own on offense, while the Indiana Fever has been otherworldly at the defensive end of the floor even without former Defensive Player of the Year Tamika Catchings.

I was surprised to see the Storm come out so balanced; it certainly feels like the team has been much better at the defensive end of the floor than the offensive end so far, though that might have something to do with the team's slow pace.

So far, the Los Angeles Sparks have been way overrated on offense but underrated on defense. I doubt that will continue to be so extreme the rest of the season, but that actually doesn't surprise me that much. The Sparks backcourt doesn't offer a lot of shooting, and the team's length is going to be very hard for opposing teams to combat.

How about the projected standings as based on point differential, converted to expected wins over the course of the 34-game season.

Team          ExpW    Team          ExpW
------------------    ------------------
Minnesota     27.4    Connecticut   26.0
Los Angeles   25.7    Detroit       24.7
Seattle       22.4    Indiana       23.7
San Antonio   14.2    Chicago       15.9
Sacramento    10.5    New York      14.2
Phoenix       10.0    Washington     9.8
Houston        8.9    Atlanta        0.0

Three elite teams and then a drop-off in both conferences. Though Houston and Phoenix are winless, both have been very competitive (losing by a combined five points to the Storm) and should put one in the win column soon. For an alternative advanced look at rating teams, check out commenter Petrel's effort to recreate John Hollinger's power ratings at the RebKell boards.

Last but surely not least, let's take a look at the individual leaders in Hollinger's PER rating.

Player              Tm   PER
----------------------------
Sophia Young       SAS  32.6
Lindsay Whalen     CON  31.4
Sylvia Fowles      CHI  28.4
Plenette Pierson   DET  27.7
Candice Dupree     CHI  27.5
Charde Houston     MIN  27.0
Nicky Anosike      MIN  26.5
Candace Parker     LAS  26.3
Erika DeSouza      ATL  26.2
Cappie Pondexter   PHO  26.0

It's early, of course, but still a lot of surprising names remain in the top 10. How about the performance of rookies around the league so far? Three of them rate in the top 10, while Essence Carson (23.2), Candice Wiggins (22.4), Alexis Hornbuckle (21.6) and Erlana Larkins (20.6) are all playing at a high level.

The Storm's leader in PER is Swin Cash (25.5), who ranks 12th in the league.