Final WNBA Stats

Ah, there's nothing quite like the day after the end of the season for the statistical analyst. All the numbers are final and in the books. Let's take a look, shall we?

League Level

The final WNBA Offensive Rating of 98.5 points per 100 possessions was essentially unchanged from last year's 98.6 mark. However, the league pace went up from 75.9 possessions per game to 77.8, which meant average scoring was up from 74.9 to 76.6 points per game.

One thing I never touched on here was the stunning improvement in league-wide free-throw shooting. The WNBA's FT% went from 74.3% to 77.5%. Three-point percentage was also up from 33.5% to 34.8%, while two-point percentage was down from 45.0% to 44.3% (more physical play in the paint).

Turnover percentage went up from 17.6% to 18.2%; I bet if you had the numbers tracked like this, you'd find the entire difference was attributable to an increase in traveling/palming violations.

UPDATE: Paul Swanson contributes these numbers and confirms my suspicion. Traveling/Dribbling turnovers increased from 1.4% of possessions in 2006 to 2.4% in 2007.

Offensive Rating

Team          ORtg
------------------
Phoenix      106.5
Seattle      104.9
Detroit      100.7
Connecticut  100.1
San Antonio   98.4
Minnesota     97.5
Sacramento    97.5
Washington    97.0
Chicago       96.6
Indiana       96.2
Houston       95.9
Los Angeles   94.4
New York      94.2

The two best offenses in the WNBA square off at KeyArena on Friday. Think this is going to be a fun series? ... It's hard to believe Indiana was third in the WNBA in offense at the time Tamika Catchings was injured; the Fever's offense was already sliding a little, but went off a cliff without Catchings. Indiana's defense, as we'll see, was not as affected by the injury. ... Usually when the worst offensive team in the league makes the playoffs, it's on the strength of defense, but the Liberty isn't that good on D.

Defensive Rating

Team          ORtg
------------------
Indiana       91.4
Detroit       94.6
Sacramento    95.2
San Antonio   97.1
Connecticut   97.2
New York      97.2
Washington    99.4
Houston      100.2
Chicago      100.3
Seattle      100.6
Phoenix      101.1
Los Angeles  101.8
Minnesota    104.2

Places where you will be hearing the phrase "defense wins championships": Indiana, Detroit, Sacramento and San Antonio (though the Silver Stars are more good than great defensively). Places where you will not be hearing the phrase "defense wins championships": Seattle, Phoenix. Whoever wins the Storm-Mercury series will have point differential on their side (as you'll see in a moment), but a substantial defensive disadvantage.

Pythagorean Standings

Again, the standings based on expected wins (as calculated from point differential):

WEST          ExpW   EAST          ExpW
------------------   ------------------
Phoenix       21.0   Detroit       22.2
Seattle       19.9   Indiana       20.6
Sacramento    18.5   Connecticut   19.7
San Antonio   18.1   Washington    15.2
Minnesota     13.2   Chicago       14.2
Houston       13.1   New York      14.1
Los Angeles   11.2

Based on point differential, the Phoenix-Storm series should be the Western Conference Finals, not an opening-round series. The Silver Stars saw their differential take a hit playing reserves in yesterday's 26-point blowout loss at Minnesota, but even if we take out that game San Antonio only improves to 18.9 expected wins.

In the East, the last team in differential made the playoffs, but New York wasn't significantly behind Washington and Chicago.

Worth noting: the league-wide parity by differential. Detroit isn't nearly as dominant in terms of differential, not anywhere near some of the league's best teams of all times, while even the league's second (or third) division was competitive.