WNBA Stats Update

I had hoped to do an update on league stats as of the All-Star break, but things got a little hectic the last couple of days so I'll have to settle for one game into the second half of the season. With no further ado, the numbers (explanations):

OFFENSIVE RATING

Team        ORating
-------------------
Phoenix       103.4
Seattle       103.3
Indiana       101.7
Detroit       100.1
Connnecticut   99.5
Washington     98.1
San Antonio    97.6
Sacramento     96.7
Minnesota      96.7
Chicago        96.2
Houston        95.4
Los Angeles    94.3
New York       92.8

Last night's win was just enough to sneak the Mercury ahead of the Storm's as the league's best offense. The Shock and Sun have both surged forward, meaning there isn't the huge gap between third and fourth place we used to see. San Antonio has already jumped forward, though a lot of that can be credited to Erin Buescher - now lost for the season with a torn ACL.

A team going up also means a team going the opposite direction, and in this case L.A. is the team falling off a cliff. We all know why the Sparks have struggled with Lisa Leslie out and Chamique Holdsclaw having suddenly retired, but the magnitude of that drop-off is pretty incredible. Here is the trend over the various times I've calculated L.A.'s Offensive Rating:

June 18: 104.6 (second in the WNBA)
June 24: 101.9 (rank N/A)
July 3: 97.9 (fourth)
July 10: 96.9 (N/A)
July 17: 94.3 (12th)

Updating it about weekly, that's a precipitous decline of 10 spots and 10 points per 100 possessions.

DEFENSIVE RATING

Team        DRating
-------------------
Indiana        90.0
Sacramento     91.8
Detroit        93.0
New York       95.5
San Antonio    95.6
Seattle        96.7
Connecticut    99.2
Phoenix       100.5
Washington    100.7
Los Angeles   100.9
Chicago       101.4
Houston       103.7
Minnesota     105.8

Not a lot of big moves in the defensive rankings. The only team to change more than a spot was Chicago, which has dipped to 11th in Defensive Rating. The Sky's offense isn't good enough to make the playoffs without improved D.

POINT DIFFERENTIAL

Again, the standings based on expected wins (as calculated from point differential):

WEST          ExpW   EAST          ExpW
------------------   ------------------
Seattle       21.5   Indiana       26.4
Sacramento    21.0   Detroit       23.4
Phoenix       18.9   Connecticut   17.1
San Antonio   18.8   Washington    14.8
Los Angeles   11.7   New York      14.2
Minnesota     11.1   Chicago       12.7
Houston       10.3

On the strength of a few recent blowout wins, the Storm actually has the best point differential in the Western Conference. That's not always a guarantee of anything - the Storm also had the best differential in the West in 2003, but finished out of the playoffs - but still a good sign. Even if the Silver Stars were healthy, I might predict a fall. Given Buescher's injury, I'm not sure they can hang on to first place in the West.

The East standings look very different after Indiana and Detroit when differential is used instead of actual record. New York is really third, a full two games up on Washington, but the Mystics have been surging and have the superior point differential. This is one to watch down the stretch.