Storm Would Have Home-Court vs. Detroit

One last item to wrap up the WNBA Playoff picture. I and others reported that Detroit would have home-court advantage in the WNBA Finals in a potential matchup with the Storm. Both teams went 22-12, but I was going off the Shock's superior record within conference.

However, the league has pointed out that's the wrong tiebreaker. In fact, it is record against the opposite conference that decides inter-conference ties. The Storm was 9-5 against the East, while Detroit was just 6-8 against the West. So the Storm wins the tie and potential home-court advantage. The Storm had a better record than any other team in the East, so should the team advance to the WNBA Finals, Games 1, 2 and 5 will be at KeyArena.

My apologies for the error and, for the record, we'll all be thrilled if this comes into play.

Storm Secures Second Seed

Even though the Storm had the evening off, the results elsewhere around the WNBA mean that the Storm is now locked into the second seed in the Western Conference.

First, San Antonio hung on to beat Connecticut at the AT&T Center, sweeping the home-and-home set between the teams over the last week and guaranteeing the Silver Stars both the top seed in the West and home-court advantage throughout the WNBA postseason.

Later, in a game I watched with some co-workers, the Atlanta Dream stunned the Los Angeles Sparks 83-72 at the STAPLES Center to ensure the Storm the second seed and home-court advantage in the first round. Former Storm players Iziane Castro Marques (23) and Betty Lennox (21) led the upset win, and while it would have been nice to earn home court with a win, I'm glad the Storm's fortunes aren't dependent on beating the Dream and those motivated players returning to KeyArena tomorrow night (7:00 p.m., 1150 AM KKNW, TIX).

While the Storm is set in second in the West, there is still something to play for over the final two games - home-court advantage in a potential WNBA Finals matchup with Detroit or Connecticut. The Storm needs two wins or one win and a Shock loss to clinch a better record than Detroit, while one win or one Sun loss will do the trick against Connecticut.

The other thing still up in the air is the Storm's opening-round opponent. Sacramento suddenly is very much alive to finish third, though the Monarchs will need to sweep a Texas two-step to San Antonio and Houston that got very strange when the game against the Comets, scheduled for tomorrow, was postponed until Monday because of fast-advancing Hurricane Ike. Sacramento would also need the Storm to defeat the Sparks in Sunday's season finale (1:30 p.m., ESPN2, 1150 AM KKNW). We won't know the Storm's opponent until Saturday at the earliest, and it's possible it could be delayed pending the outcome of Monday's postponed game. Crazy.

As for the second seed ... as Sue Bird noted this morning on KUOW, it's been good to the Storm in the past. The Storm won the championship from the second seed in 2004.

Playoff Picture: Sept. 10

After battling in Sacramento with just nine active players last night, the Storm is taking a well-deserved day off. That gives us a chance to look at the playoff picture, which came further into focus when San Antonio won at Madison Square Garden.

We know this: The four West playoff teams will be the Storm, San Antonio, Los Angeles and Sacramento.

With one win or one Sparks loss, the Storm clinches at least second place and home-court advantage in the first round.

With one win or one Storm loss, San Antonio clinches the top seed in the West.

With one win or one Sacramento loss, the Sparks clinch at least third place.

It's possible, then, that everything could be set in the West by the end of the Storm's game on Friday. All that would require is the Silver Stars beating Connecticut and Los Angeles beating Atlanta tomorrow and the Storm defeating the Dream at KeyArena Friday (7:00 p.m., 1150 AM KKNW, TIX). (Another equivalent scenario would have both the Sparks and Sacramento lose their next games; the Monarchs play in Houston on Friday.)

Playoff Picture: Sept. 8

After the weekend slate of games, the playoff picture in the Western Conference is getting clearer. Let's take a look.

Team           W   L    GB  Storm  Conf   H/A  500+
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San Antonio   21  10    -    1-2    9-10  2/1   3/0
Seattle       21  10    -          13-5   1/2   2/1
Los Angeles   19  13   2.5   1-1   11-8   2/0   1/1
Sacramento    17  14   4.0   3-0    8-9   1/2   2/1
Phoenix       15  16   6.0   3-1    7-12  0/3   1/2
Houston       14  17   7.0   2-1    9-10  2/1   2/1
Minnesota     14  17   7.0   3-0    8-11  2/1   0/3

From the Storm's perspective, the biggest games of the weekend were San Antonio hosting Los Angeles Friday and then traveling to Connecticut to play on ABC yesterday. The Silver Stars won both challenging games to remain tied with the Storm atop the Western Conference. Because they hold the tiebreaker, the Storm needs the Silver Stars to lose to win the West regular-season crown. The schedule is still tough - at New York and home against the Sun and Sacramento - but at this point San Antonio is definitely in the driver's seat.

Sacramento losing Friday at Phoenix and the Storm winning Saturday ensured the Storm will finish no lower than third in the Western Conference. Saturday's win also brought the Storm's magic number to clinch home-court advantage in the first round (either the first or second seed) to one. Winning either of the next two games will keep Los Angeles from being able to pass the Storm with a win in the season finale on Sunday. (Between now and then, the Sparks play only Atlanta at home, so don't count on a loss from them.) Meanwhile, one more L.A. win or Monarchs loss will clinch at least third for the Sparks.

The last bit of intrigue is the race for the fourth and final spot in the playoffs. Houston and Minnesota have faltered, and the latter was eliminated by losing last night at ARCO Arena. Sacramento holds the tiebreaker on late-charging Phoenix and therefore needs only one win to clinch a playoff spot. The Mercury has an outside chance at rallying, but must sweep a season-ending three-game road trip (at Detroit, Minnesota and Indiana) and have the Monarchs lose out. Houston's situation is even more desperate. The Comets need three wins (they host Connecticut and Sacramento and finish at Chicago), three Sacramento losses (vs. Seattle, at Houston, at San Antonio) at least two losses by the Mercury AND a Minnesota loss to make the playoffs.

If three or even all four teams somehow end up tied at 17-17, the Monarchs would win any potential tiebreakers based on their strong head-to-head record against the other teams.

Got all that? We'll be administering a test later.

One Win Away

With the Lynx's loss to Phoenix yesterday, the Storm is within a win of clinching a playoff berth. A Minnesota loss or a San Antonio victory should also do the trick, but none of that will matter if the Storm wins tonight in Chicago. The playoff picture:

Team           W   L    GB  Storm  Conf   H/A  500+
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San Antonio   19  10    -    1-2    8-10  3/2   5/0
Seattle       19  10    -          12-5   2/3   2/3
Los Angeles   18  12   1.5   1-1   10-7   2/2   2/2
Sacramento    16  13   3.0   3-0    7-8   2/3   2/3
Houston       14  15   5.0   2-1    9-8   3/2   3/2
Minnesota     14  15   5.0   2-0    8-9   2/3   2/3
Phoenix       13  16   6.0   3-1    5-12  3/3   2/3

Let's talk a little about the fourth and final playoff spot. Last night's loss was costly for the Lynx, now two games back of Sacramento. Phoenix, meanwhile, kept its flickering playoff hopes alive. Both Minnesota and Houston have head-to-head matchups left with the Monarchs and a chance to win the tiebreakers. They're virtually must-win games. Phoenix also has a game with Sacramento, but has already lost the season series and has very little margin for error the rest of the way.

Storm Cannot Clinch Playoffs Tonight

Delay the playoff clinching celebration a little bit. Via WNBA PR, Elias Sports Bureau communicated this morning that there are scenarios, like a three-way tie between the Storm, Minnesota and San Antonio, that would leave the Storm on the outside of the postseason looking in even if the Lynx lose tonight.

It's a semi-annual tradition to try to figure out how the WNBA breaks multi-team ties, and the current interpretation leaves the Storm more vulnerable. Still, the magic number against Houston is one and two against Minnesota, so the Storm could clinch as soon as Thursday with a win in Chicago and a Lynx loss.

Here's the latest playoff picture.

Team           W   L    GB  Storm  Conf   H/A  500+
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San Antonio   19  10    -    1-2    8-10  3/2   5/0
Seattle       19  10    -          12-5   2/3   3/2
Los Angeles   18  12   1.5   1-1   10-7   2/2   2/2
Sacramento    16  13   3.0   3-0    7-8   2/3   3/2
Minnesota     14  14   4.5   2-0    8-8   2/4   2/4
Houston       14  15   5.0   2-1    9-8   3/2   3/2
Phoenix       12  16   6.5   3-1    4-12  3/3   4/2

Note that San Antonio holds the tiebreaker with the Storm, which is why the Silver Stars are still atop the Western Conference though the two teams have identical records.

Playoff Picture: Sept. 2

The standings in the Western Conference after L.A.'s come-from-behind blowout victory over Minnesota last night:

Team           W   L    GB  Storm  Conf   H/A  500+
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San Antonio   19  10   0     1-2    8-10  3/2   5/0
Seattle       18  10   0.5         12-5   2/4   3/3
Los Angeles   18  12   1.5   1-1   10-7   2/2   3/1
Sacramento    16  13   3.0   3-0    7-8   2/3   4/1
Houston       14  14   4.5   2-1    9-8   4/2   4/2
Minnesota     14  14   4.5   2-0    8-8   2/4   2/4
Phoenix       12  16   6.5   3-1    4-12  3/3   5/1

The outcome reduced the Storm's magic number to two to effectively clinch a playoff spot. That could happen as soon as Wednesday if the Storm wins tonight in Atlanta, New York defeats Houston and Minnesota loses tomorrow at Phoenix. That would allow the Storm to individually clinch against the Comets, Lynx and Mercury, and I'm not seeing any possible multi-team tie that would leave the Storm out of the playoffs.

With their win, the Sparks have climbed within one game of the Storm. Really, however, how both teams play over the next week and a half takes a backseat to their nationally-televised season finale Sept. 14 at the STAPLES Center. That game will determine the head-to-head tiebreaker, the two teams having split the first two meetings. With a win in that game, the Storm would need at most two other wins the rest of the way to guarantee no worse than second in the West. If the Sparks win, however, the Storm would need to have a better record the rest of the season than L.A. to avoid a tie and win out.

WNBA.com's Playoff Picture

Playoff Picture: Aug. 31

After the Storm's loss today in Connecticut, here's how things look in the Western Conference.

Team           W   L    GB  Storm  Conf   H/A  500+
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San Antonio   19  10   0     1-2    8-10  3/2   5/0
Seattle       18  10   0.5         12-5   2/4   3/3
Los Angeles   17  12   2.0   1-1    9-7   3/2   4/1
Sacramento    16  13   3.0   3-0    7-8   2/3   4/1
Minnesota     14  13   4.0   2-0    8-7   2/5   3/4
Houston       14  14   4.5   2-1    9-8   4/2   4/2
Phoenix       12  16   6.5   3-1    4-12  3/3   5/1

After briefly taking over first in the West by percentage points with San Antonio's loss last night to Los Angeles, the Storm drops a half-game off the pace with the loss. Los Angeles has now moved within 1.5 games of the Storm for home-court advantage in the first round, while Sacramento got a big head-to-head win over Houston, which has dropped into sixth place.

The Storm's magic number to clinch against Houston dropped to two, but is still three against both Minnesota and Sacramento and overall.

The good news is, though the Storm could not pull out a tight game in Mohegan Sun, if the team plays like this the next two games, that should translate into victories. Even without Lindsay Whalen, Connecticut is a very dangerous team. Right now, the Sun has to be considered the favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference and maybe even to win it all.

The only other game scheduled today features two East teams, so the playoff picture won't change until tomorrow, when Minnesota visits L.A. in a big game in the West standings.

Playoff Picture: Aug. 29

With the WNBA season back underway and just seven games remaining, it's time to start focusing in on the battle to make the playoffs and for positioning within them. Here's the first installment of storm.wnba.com's Playoff Picture updates.

Team           W   L    GB  Storm  Conf   H/A  500+
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San Antonio   19   9   0     1-2    8-9   3/3   6/0
Seattle       18   9   0.5         12-5   2/5   4/3
Los Angeles   16  12   3.0   1-1    8-7   4/2   5/1
Sacramento    15  13   4.0   3-0    6-8   3/3   5/1
Houston       14  13   4.5   2-1    9-7   4/3   5/2
Minnesota     13  13   5.0   2-0    8-7   3/5   3/5
Phoenix       12  16   7.0   3-1    4-12  3/3   5/1

With the top three teams in the West all winning, the Storm remains a half-game back of San Antonio for the top spot in the West and 2.5 up on third-place Los Angeles.

The more important doings are a little lower. With the Storm's win and Phoenix's loss, the Mercury can do no better than tie the Storm, and the Storm holds the tiebreaker. The most wins any of Houston, Minnesota and Sacramento can get is 21, so by winning three more games, the Storm would guarantee at least a tie with them. The Storm holds tiebreakers with both all three teams by virtue of head-to-head record.

There's an extraordinarily unlikely possibility of a four-way tie with Houston/Minnesota, Los Angeles and San Antonio that would leave the Storm out of the playoffs, but for all intents and purposes the Storm's magic number to clinch a playoff spot is three wins or any combination of Storm wins plus losses by TWO OF Houston, Minnesota and Sacramento that adds to three.

(UPDATED 8/29 at 3:00 p.m. to reflect Storm holding tiebreaker over Minnesota.)